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I've always said that this is a race I expect Blackburn to win, though I don't expect her to blow out Bredesen, as he's shown that he's a Democrat who can win statewide in TN in the not so distant past. Whenever we're dealing with a conservative state and early polls show the left of center Democrat winning but a significant percentage of the electorate undecided, I've almost always seen those undecided (who are conservative voters by and large) come home at the end of the day. We still have a little while to go before election day here, but my money is still on Blackburn.
Note, I also expect the GOP to hold AZ, though I think they are in serious trouble in Nevada. All in all, I expect the GOP to come out of this election with 53-54 Senate seats (I see them picking off ND, MO, FL, and possibly MT, while likely losing NV).
That's about as bad as polls get.... It was an online poll... & was weighted by voting demographics.
Here's the methodogoly...
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 620 likely voters across Tennessee. The poll was conducted from August 9ththrough the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.9%.The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses. The results are weighted by voting demographics.The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.
That's about as bad as polls get.... It was an online poll... & was weighted by voting demographics.
Here's the methodogoly...
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 620 likely voters across Tennessee. The poll was conducted from August 9ththrough the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.9%.The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses. The results are weighted by voting demographics.The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.
Do explain how the poll is "as bad as polls get." The methodology doesn't seem to be inherently troubling or unreliable.
It was a online poll... Online polls have been found to be very unreliable.
It was an internet poll featuring a random sampling of cell phone users with voice interaction. Internet polls aren't inherently unreliable. Its all about overall methodology. I see nothing inherently wrong with the methodology here, especially since the sampling was of cell phone users, which is the best group to sample if you're doing phone polls as most people use cell phones today as opposed to landlines.
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