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So it looks like Lesko wins by about 53-47. That should be pretty heartening for Dems who considered anything single digits a win. That was around Apraio's margin in this district when he lost Maricopa County (Phoenix metro) by 13. The GOP donors sank a million dollars on this one, too.
Note: the average age of voters in this election was 68
I live in this district. It’s hopelessly ignorant Republican. Better educated people appear to be moving into the district...maybe one day I’ll have representation in Congress.
So it looks like Lesko wins by about 53-47. That should be pretty heartening for Dems who considered anything single digits a win. That was around Apraio's margin in this district when he lost Maricopa County (Phoenix metro) by 13. The GOP donors sank a million dollars on this one, too.
Note: the average age of voters in this election was 68
I live in this district. It’s hopelessly ignorant Republican. Better educated people appear to be moving into the district...maybe one day I’ll have representation in Congress.
Yes, please keep insulting the winners, since it worked so well for you in 2016.
An average voter of age of 68 is pretty out of the norm. It would suggest all the young people stayed home but a previous poster has pointed out this district includes Sun City which is a mega development for retirees. The voters there would be older, whiter and transplants compared to a normal district.
I will say that Dems keeping the margin to 6 with older/whiter/wealthier voters is a pretty big deal for a Dem candidate. If the turnout and margins within the demographics in recent elections were replicated nationally it would be a tsunami. However I doubt that will happen as Rs tend to be better at showing up on election day. I still think Dem can take the House and keep Senate losses to 2.
While the Republican did win and they should celebrate the hold, I'd still be concerned if I was Republican.
These weren't "problematic candidates." This wasn't a Roy Moore or Blankenship. This might have been as close to a "generic ballot" as possible.
Lesko was a generic Republican in that:
- Would have supported Tax Cuts Act
- Supports charter schools
- Wants to repeal Affordable Care Act
- Does not support universal health care
- supports Trumps wall on the Mexico border
- disagrees mostly with man-made climate change
- pro-life
That's pretty much the party line.
The Democrat, Tipirneni is pretty much your generic Democrat:
- supports "common sense" gun control while still support the 2nd Amendment
- supports a public health insurance option
- supports immigration reform
- pro-choice
That's as generic as it gets. Neither candidate had any major scandals dragging their numbers down. And while the republican did win the district, a district Trump won by 21 points - she only won by 5 points. A win is a win, but if you follow the "generic ballot", it estimates democrats would win with generic candidates even in areas with about +5 Republican voters.
But AZ-8 is a district with constituents that are overwhelmingly registered republicans. That's 16 point swing. Much more than the +5.5 points the national generic ballot is showing.
Personally, I'm skeptical of the Blue Wave but there are many signs that the writing is on the wall. That doesn't mean I think Dems will lose seats in the House. No, I don't that at all. I just think they shouldn't count the chickens before they hatch.
While the Republican did win and they should celebrate the hold, I'd still be concerned if I was Republican.
These weren't "problematic candidates." This wasn't a Roy Moore or Blankenship. This might have been as close to a "generic ballot" as possible.
Lesko was a generic Republican in that:
- Would have supported Tax Cuts Act
- Supports charter schools
- Wants to repeal Affordable Care Act
- Does not support universal health care
- supports Trumps wall on the Mexico border
- disagrees mostly with man-made climate change
- pro-life
That's pretty much the party line.
The Democrat, Tipirneni is pretty much your generic Democrat:
- supports "common sense" gun control while still support the 2nd Amendment
- supports a public health insurance option
- supports immigration reform
- pro-choice
That's as generic as it gets. Neither candidate had any major scandals dragging their numbers down. And while the republican did win the district, a district Trump won by 21 points - she only won by 5 points. A win is a win, but if you follow the "generic ballot", it estimates democrats would win with generic candidates even in areas with about +5 Republican voters.
But AZ-8 is a district with constituents that are overwhelmingly registered republicans. That's 16 point swing. Much more than the +5.5 points the national generic ballot is showing.
Personally, I'm skeptical of the Blue Wave but there are many signs that the writing is on the wall. That doesn't mean I think Dems will lose seats in the House. No, I don't that at all. I just think they shouldn't count the chickens before they hatch.
If the GOP lost this one, I think panic mode would have certainly set in and while it is certainly a sigh of relief they held this, a 5 point margin in a district like this should still be concerning. A key path to the Majority for the Democrats is going to be suburban districts that tend to be well educated and/or diverse. This district is suburban for the most part, but isn't diverse, isn't as well educated (more in line with national average in that respect) and tends to skew older, not to mention was Trump +21.
An average voter of age of 68 is pretty out of the norm. It would suggest all the young people stayed home but a previous poster has pointed out this district includes Sun City which is a mega development for retirees. The voters there would be older, whiter and transplants compared to a normal district.
I will say that Dems keeping the margin to 6 with older/whiter/wealthier voters is a pretty big deal for a Dem candidate. If the turnout and margins within the demographics in recent elections were replicated nationally it would be a tsunami. However I doubt that will happen as Rs tend to be better at showing up on election day. I still think Dem can take the House and keep Senate losses to 2.
We will find out in November as there will be a rematch. Turnout was 180K/460K registered. Almost all the votes were early by mail which is becoming the norm in AZ and especially in R areas. Almost half were R voters, with about 1/4 I and 1/4 D. So a heck of a lot of Rs crossed over. FWIW, this district is one where the R candidate in the past put up a couple signs on telephone poles and intersections and won in a landslide. The GOP put over a million dollars into saving this. The Dems put in $0 helping her figuring it was a lost cause.
+21 GOP district goes to +5. Winning would have been nice but doesn't really matter - most GOP districts are NOT +21, and Democrats have a far better chance of flipping those.
I keep hearing Republicans saying they expect to lose between 40 and 60 seats, setting up a Democratic majority not just in 2018, but in 2020 as well. Of course, they have to get to the voters to go out and vote in November. As long as Trump continues to be Trump, that's their not-so-secret weapon in getting all those souls to the polls.
+21 GOP district goes to +5. Winning would have been nice but doesn't really matter - most GOP districts are NOT +21, and Democrats have a far better chance of flipping those
+1
Arizona's 8th is filled with conservative white retired people.
A large chunk of them crossed over and voted Democrat.
That's the only explanation for Lesko's 5-point win in a district where Trump won by 20+.
National GOP is very, very worried.
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