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Arizona's 8th is filled with conservative white retired people.
A large chunk of them crossed over and voted Democrat.
That's the only explanation for Lesko's 5-point win in a district where Trump won by 20+.
National GOP is very, very worried.
I don't want to read further into it, but in my previous post I mentioned these were fairly generic and scandal-free candidates. It isn't like people showing up to vote against a scandalous candidate. And regardless of who the candidates are, many voters were likely voting as a referendum on the party.
That's a big problem if it is true.
It is one thing to support a candidate. It is another to, by extension, rail against your party by jumping ship to the other. It doesn't not bode well for the republican party if they don't somehow turn this around.
I don't want to read further into it, but in my previous post I mentioned these were fairly generic and scandal-free candidates. It isn't like people showing up to vote against a scandalous candidate. And regardless of who the candidates are, many voters were likely voting as a referendum on the party.
That's a big problem if it is true.
It is one thing to support a candidate. It is another to, by extension, rail against your party by jumping ship to the other. It doesn't not bode well for the republican party if they don't somehow turn this around.
Yes, scandal free - but close enough that if there had been a Roy Moore on the GOP side, even this seat might have flipped.
GOPers - the ones who are willing to recognize reality, at least - are aware of what this signals. Possible that some more of them will leave the sinking ship while they still have a chance.
Yes, scandal free - but close enough that if there had been a Roy Moore on the GOP side, even this seat might have flipped.
GOPers - the ones who are willing to recognize reality, at least - are aware of what this signals. Possible that some more of them will leave the sinking ship while they still have a chance.
Correct.
But not so long ago, when I went to bed on a November night, I was thinking I'd wake up to another Democratic President. It seemed like such a sure thing. All this talk of the demographics changing and the electoral map. And boy we were wrong. And whatever the reason might be for that not happening, we are still 6+ months out from Election Day. I won't be assuming anything is happening until the votes are tallied.
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PilgrimsProgress
Rush is talking about this election and said the Dems consider the Republican's win a good thing for the Dems.
If it makes them happy, let them have this delusion. Maybe they won't riot.
I knew one of you right wingers would post something like this. If you knew this district like I do, the odds are it wasn't going to flip anyways. It's not competitive, it's mainly old people who are set in their ways, and the now resigned incumbent (Trent Franks) ran unopposed most years, and was a single issue candidate; all he ever tried to do in Washington was ban abortion
Rush is talking about this election and said the Dems consider the Republican's win a good thing for the Dems.
If it makes them happy, let them have this delusion. Maybe they won't riot.
A 5 point race in a district that is heavily Republican in which Trump won by 21 points is not a good sign for the Republicans. Is it better than losing it? Of course, but this was not even remotely a swing district.
There are plenty of seats in which are held by Republicans in seats that are much more marginal/ that Trump won by a narrower margin or lost in that this one. Those are going to be the ones to watch in November, and a margin like this in a district like this is not a good sign for the GOP in those districts.
A 5 point race in a district that is heavily Republican in which Trump won by 21 points is not a good sign for the Republicans. Is it better than losing it? Of course, but this was not even remotely a swing district.
There are plenty of seats in which are held by Republicans in seats that are much more marginal/ that Trump won by a narrower margin or lost in that this one. Those are going to be the ones to watch in November, and a margin like this in a district like this is not a good sign for the GOP in those districts.
Well, of course that's the logical explanation. But the party that doesn't believe in science seems to also not believe in arithmetic.
Well, of course that's the logical explanation. But the party that doesn't believe in science seems to also not believe in arithmetic.
Rush and the Rs may be putting on a brave face, but you can be sure there is white knuckle panic behind the scenes. Consider:
Lesko is a household name in AZ Republican politics. Her state house district is part of this congressional district. Her opponent was a newcomer with a funny, foreign sounding name.
The average voter in the election was a 68 year old white person.
The RCCC dropped a million dollars on negative ads (immigration dog whistles) and call banks in the final days. I don't even live in the district and got three calls from them. The DCCC spent nothing - nothing!
If all you can do is 5% edge with all that, then you've really got to wonder what is going to happen this fall.
Republican operatives, strategists, and officials are very spooked by what happened in AZ. If this trend, and the other special election trends continue, Republicans lose the House and are worried about losing the Senate as well.
+21 GOP district goes to +5. Winning would have been nice but doesn't really matter - most GOP districts are NOT +21, and Democrats have a far better chance of flipping those.
I keep hearing Republicans saying they expect to lose between 40 and 60 seats, setting up a Democratic majority not just in 2018, but in 2020 as well. Of course, they have to get to the voters to go out and vote in November. As long as Trump continues to be Trump, that's their not-so-secret weapon in getting all those souls to the polls.
The problem with these concerns and facts is that the district was +21 for Donald Trump . . . it hasn't been anywhere near as lopsided in prior elections (Cook Partisan Voting Index is GOP +13). Donald Trump outperformed many GOP presidential candidates in many districts throughout the country (though he fared worse in a few). Donald Trump flipped districts (and lopsidedly so) that went lopsidedly to Barack Obama. To see Democrats competitive in many of these areas where they dominated or were otherwise more competitive for decades (and longer) before Trump shouldn't be a major warning sign to Republicans.
AZ-8 is a district that has shunned the GOP in the past during wave Democrat elections. Indeed, Gabby Giffords won the district in what was an upset in the Dem wave election year of 2006 (and she won it by a very healthy margin, too, though the GOP won it two years prior in a landslide: https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_...ional_District). If we were seeing signs of a true wave, I'd have expected the Dem to carry the district during the special election . . . instead, the Dem got fewer votes than the 95,000 or so votes the Dem candidate got in 2016.
Now, I do think that the Dems are more motivated than the GOP. But I think we'd need to see consistent/sustained major leads in the generic congressional ballot in their favor before I truly start to sweat things.
I honestly think that Trump is going to have a somewhat similar impact that Obama had on the electoral process and consistently perform very well among his base, even though other members of his party running for lessor offices are not as successful. Still, the real problem for Dems going into 2018, however, is that in many of the districts that will be competitive, the Dem primary base is far left. And far left candidates won't be as successful in many of the competitive districts in a general election. Simply put, most Dem nominees will not be of the mold of Connor Lamb.
To close, consider this:
Quote:
A new report from the Brennan Center for Justice calculates just how much of a landslide Democrats will need in order to win in districts that were drawn specifically to withstand Democratic waves and elect Republicans. The result, report co-author Michael Li says, should be a ‘reality check’ for Democrats.” To win the House, the Democrats would have to win the popular vote by 11 points, according to this left-leaning organization.
The Dem advantage in the generic congressional ballot is nowhere close to 11 points on average.
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