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In a poll designed to reflect the electorate that will vote in November (+12 Republican registration), Donald Trump’s favorability rating is -13% (43% favorable to 56% unfavorable).
Let that sink in for a moment.
49% of voters view Trump very unfavorably as opposed to 30% very favorably.
Only 25% of Independents view Trump favorably to 74% unfavorably.
Turning to the Senate race, all three of the Republican candidates are viewed negatively; Martha McSally is at -2%, Kelli Ward at -5% and Joe Arpaio at a staggering -30%. The presumptive Democratic nominee, Krysten Sinema is at +20%.
In the R primary, Kelli Ward leads with 36%, followed by McSally at 27% and Sheriff Joe at 22%. Support for Arpaio is collapsing. He was tied with McSally for the lead in the January poll.
All three Republicans trail Sinema in the general, with McSally being the most competitive, trailing by 6% at 48-42. Kelli Ward trails Sinema by 10% and Arpaio trails by a staggering 26%.
Bottom line; Donald Trump is a huge factor in Arizona. The candidate positioning closer to Trump is more likely to win in the primary, but less likely to prevail in the general due to Trump’s standing with Independent voters.
The klaxton emergency alarm must be going off in the GOP HQ today. Dems right now will probably flip the senate, the three winnable races Florida, Indiana, & North Dakota look like an uphill fight. Add in Dems are ahead in Tennessee & Arizona, & there is a good chance McCains seat could also be up this election cycle.
Republicans are about 1/3 of the voters. They are not a majority. Your logic is severely flawed. The poll weighting was actually rather favorable for Republicans. It was based on election turnout. Trump is not that popular in AZ. He won by a mere 3%, taking Maricopa County (Phoenix metro) by only 40K out of 2 million votes.
Polls in April don't necessarily predict November results. It's still more than half a year until election day. A lot can and will happen between now and then. Some of it will affect voting.
There are more Republicans than Democrats in AZ, however Republicans aren't a majority. There are more Democrats + Indpendents in AZ than Republicans.
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New Arizona Senate Poll
