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You either didn’t read or don’t understand the ramifications of the data.
1. The composition of eligible voters in every state for 2020 through 2036 was calculated. That’s only 18 years. Those future voters have already been born. You get a window into the racial makeup of future eligible voters by looking at the children. Educational attainment can be projected.
2. The GOP remains overly dependent on white, non-college grad, voters, who as a group are losing 2%-3% of their total of eligible voters nationally every four year POTUS cycle due to death because they’re a disproportionately older group. The rates vary, but the percentage of eligible voters that these voters represent is falling in every state.
3. Since the GOP is overly dependent on a fading demographic, unless they increase their support among growing groups (college whites and majorities), just matching what they did in previous elections won’t be good enough; they’ll have to continually win white non-college by a higher percentage or get a higher turnout just to match what they did in the last election because those voters make up less and less of total eligible voters.
4. These are simulations, not predictions of future elections, but their projections on future eligible voters by state are based on solid math, and all scenarios tested are based upon that.
The White "Non-College Educated" Voters are the ones who either went into the Military and learned a useful skill and got out got a decent paying job, or the whites who went into trades and got a decent job being a welder, electrician, etc. I don't understand why this group of voters are called dumb when the majority of the whites I know without a degree are better off financially than the whites with a college degree.
I got the exact opposite vibe. Trump is still schilling the same old tripe to the same people. It may have worked once for him to get elected without a plurality but it won't happen again. He has failed to move beyond his base. He is doomed.
That was said before the 2016 election. "Trump won't win. He doesn't stand a chance." The Republicans then won The White House, Senate, House, Most Governorships. Pluralities don't win elections. Didn't they teach you that in High School Civics Class?
The White "Non-College Educated" Voters are the ones who either went into the Military and learned a useful skill and got out got a decent paying job, or the whites who went into trades and got a decent job being a welder, electrician, etc. I don't understand why this group of voters are called dumb when the majority of the whites I know without a degree are better off financially than the whites with a college degree.
One person's anecdotal experiences are not necessarily reflective of the general population. All statistics indicate that people, regardless of race, benefit financially from completing more education, and locations with more college graduates have higher income levels.
Among those who don't have a college degree, yes - having practical trade skills is very helpful and far more lucrative than working in low paying service positions. And for college graduates, degrees in some disciplines have a more clear career path to financial rewards than others do. Not everyone without a college degree is a skilled tradesman, and not everyone with a college degree is working an hourly shift in a coffee shop or bookstore. I don't endorse calling people "dumb" or "smart" based on their educational credentials but in general it is advantageous to have more schooling rather than less.
I mean, yeah, the past 15 months have been funny as Hell, and great entertainment, but it is time to get this country back on track and a beginning of uniting us, vs the divisions Trump has caused between "Us and You". We can only watch this reality show of a Presidency so long before it is time to switch channels.
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Donald Trump did not cause this supposed division, the liberal MSM did, they waged war on Trump even befdore he got elected, negative coverage of him all the time.
Vote with purpose means voting for one of the two major parties—one of which will win. Throwing votes at a non-viable 3rd party candidate is as good as not voting.
(I’m not opposed to a grass roots 3rd party campaign, but throwing general election votes to a non-viable 3rd party candidate isn’t the way to do it.)
Another who believes that a third party voter is a wasted vote. Good minion.
You Trump supporters can gloat all you want about how "Trump won", but you guys are not stupid. You HAVE to see that this past 15 months has been one disaster after another, one question of ethics after another, and one failed attempt at getting anything of substance done after another. Do YOU really want 4 years of this, let alone 4 on top of that ?
I mean, yeah, the past 15 months have been funny as Hell, and great entertainment, but it is time to get this country back on track and a beginning of uniting us, vs the divisions Trump has caused between "Us and You". We can only watch this reality show of a Presidency so long before it is time to switch channels.
Donald Trump is not, and will never be, a true leader to take us into the future, all he will do is get us into one jam after another, and separate us even more from the rest of the world..........a world that we need if we are going to proper and survive.
The division was fomented by Obama, not Trump. The left drew a line in the sand and simply can't understand why the right won't get on board the program.
Trump will win again. The Dems have learned nothing from the 2016 election. Their only message is still hate and division. Their main focus is still attack and resist, rather than coming up with a viable candidate to run against him, and a plan for America.
Keep up the good work!
Trump will win again. The Dems have learned nothing from the 2016 election. Their only message is still hate and division. Their main focus is still attack and resist, rather than coming up with a viable candidate to run against him, and a plan for America.
Keep up the good work!
Hey- the same message worked for the Republicans.
So why not give it a try on the other side of the fence?
The logic seems natural. When respect and acceptance are losing tactics, both parties will naturally go the other direction.
The White "Non-College Educated" Voters are the ones who either went into the Military and learned a useful skill and got out got a decent paying job, or the whites who went into trades and got a decent job being a welder, electrician, etc. I don't understand why this group of voters are called dumb when the majority of the whites I know without a degree are better off financially than the whites with a college degree.
They are not necessarily dumb. Nowhere in what you referenced did I infer they were dumb, but they are, collectively, older than all the other voting blocs and are losing 2%-3% of their voting share every 4 years just due to natural displacement.
For over 20 years, the following has generally applied: -3+1+2 On average, non-college whites share nationally falls 3%, while white college grads gain 1% and minorities gain 2%.
In the 2016 POTUS election, Exit polls showed that non-college whites backed Trump by 66% to 29% (+37R). Conversely, white college backed Trump by 3%R (48% to 45%) while minorities backed Clinton by 74% to 21% (+53D). Losing 3% of a +37R group and replacing them with 1% of (+3R) and 2% of (+53%D) is not a winning strategy over time.
In short, the Trump coalition, as it currently stands, is not sustainable. If you run computer simulations and leave everything the same as 2016, but just factor in the decline in the number of non-college whites state by state, by 2020, Trump loses 286-266 in the electoral college because he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If you reduce the number of independent votes cast in 2016 and assume a drift back to the Republicans, you end up in a 269-269 tie, with Trump prevailing in the House of Representatives. By 2024, that wouldn’t work either.
The Republican Party must either broaden its appeal to higher percentages of white college grads and minorities, or continually deepen its support of non-college whites by getting ever increasing levels of turnout and higher and higher percentages of their votes, just to not lose ground. Conversely, if the preferences of the growing demographic groups don’t change, the percentage of votes nationally cast for Democrats goes up over time, because the minority younger native born are nearing 50% of their age bracket.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 05-27-2018 at 09:38 AM..
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