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You Trump supporters can gloat all you want about how "Trump won", but you guys are not stupid. You HAVE to see that this past 15 months has been one disaster after another, one question of ethics after another, and one failed attempt at getting anything of substance done after another. Do YOU really want 4 years of this, let alone 4 on top of that ?
They are not necessarily dumb. Nowhere in what you referenced did I infer they were dumb, but they are, collectively, older than all the other voting blocs and are losing 2%-3% of their voting share every 4 years just due to natural displacement.
For over 20 years, the following has generally applied: -3+1+2 On average, non-college whites share nationally falls 3%, while white college grads gain 1% and minorities gain 2%.
In the 2016 POTUS election, Exit polls showed that non-college whites backed Trump by 66% to 29% (+37R). Conversely, white college backed Trump by 3%R (48% to 45%) while minorities backed Clinton by 74% to 21% (+53D). Losing 3% of a +37R group and replacing them with 1% of (+3R) and 2% of (+53%D) is not a winning strategy over time.
In short, the Trump coalition, as it currently stands, is not sustainable. If you run computer simulations and leave everything the same as 2016, but just factor in the decline in the number of non-college whites state by state, by 2020, Trump loses 286-266 in the electoral college because he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If you reduce the number of independent votes cast in 2016 and assume a drift back to the Republicans, you end up in a 269-269 tie, with Trump prevailing in the House of Representatives. By 2024, that wouldn’t work either.
The Republican Party must either broaden its appeal to higher percentages of white college grads and minorities, or continually deepen its support of non-college whites by getting ever increasing levels of turnout and higher and higher percentages of their votes, just to not lose ground. Conversely, if the preferences of the growing demographic groups don’t change, the percentage of votes nationally cast for Democrats goes up over time, because the minority younger native born are nearing 50% of their age bracket.
Well, white college grads have voted Republican for the past few elections, and White Millennials voted for Trump as well. 48% to 43% of White Millennials voted Trump over Clinton. I'm not saying that you called those group of voters dumb, I'm just saying that that particular group of voters are usually current or ex military who make over $50,000 a year, or the whites who went into the trade, who also make over $50,000 a year. The "College educated" Whites are typically the ones who's majors don't count for anything (besides the whites who majored in STEM fields, but those are probably the group of white college grads who pushed Trump over the edge for him winning that group). A lot of colleges indoctrinate these young kids to liberal politics early on, until they get out of school and realize that isn't how the world works. That's why Millennials are now voting overwhelmingly Democrat, but white voters over 30 prefer the Republican Candidate most of the time. I get your point about Minority voters, though. But, typically those White Non-College educated voters are the ones who are engineers, IT, Electricians, welders, etc who hate having their money going to support the Democrat's platform of supporting illegals, welfare, etc. (By the way, the only white category that Trump lost was College educated White women, 51%-45% in favor of Clinton, he won every single other white category, and Non-Hispanic whites won't be the majority soon, but they still will be a higher percentage of voters than the minorities, they just won't be the majority.)
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