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Its down over 2 points from last week. And is down even more if you remove the outlier Quinnipiac poll having them up by 12 from July 23 . . . note, that poll will be dropped from the average as time goes by.
There's been 7 other more recent polls that resulted in:
Dem+5, +9, +6, +5, +1, +7, +6
Honestly, seeing a decline in 2017 to 2018 is pretty natural. In 2017, the polling is done essentially with everyone's "ideal candidate." Now that we are in 2018, these candidates all have real names, real faults, etc. They are no longer ideal candidates but they are the best (or worst?) of what we have to work with.
There's been 7 other more recent polls that resulted in:
Dem+5, +9, +6, +5, +1, +7, +6
Honestly, seeing a decline in 2017 to 2018 is pretty natural. In 2017, the polling is done essentially with everyone's "ideal candidate." Now that we are in 2018, these candidates all have real names, real faults, etc. They are no longer ideal candidates but they are the best (or worst?) of what we have to work with.
I may agree that its somewhat natural, but it definitely doesn't point to some sure Dem control of the House. Honestly, I hope the media keeps pushing the narrative, though, as I feel it'll lead some on the left to become complacent.
Note, I don't doubt that Democrats are more motivated than Republicans are going into the midterms. And I don't doubt that this extra motivation will result in some advantages for the Dems. What I disagree with many on, however, is the extent. While Dems enthusiasm has seen low turnout special elections be close, I'm not convinced (far from it, actually) that this enthusiasm will be enough to counter the strong Republican tilts of these districts when GOP turnout returns to its normal strength during the actual midterm cycle. Time will tell, of course, but I think many a news anchor and activist will have egg on their faces (again) come November.
I may agree that its somewhat natural, but it definitely doesn't point to some sure Dem control of the House. Honestly, I hope the media keeps pushing the narrative, though, as I feel it'll lead some on the left to become complacent.
Note, I don't doubt that Democrats are more motivated than Republicans are going into the midterms. And I don't doubt that this extra motivation will result in some advantages for the Dems. What I disagree with many on, however, is the extent. While Dems enthusiasm has seen low turnout special elections be close, I'm not convinced (far from it, actually) that this enthusiasm will be enough to counter the strong Republican tilts of these districts when GOP turnout returns to its normal strength during the actual midterm cycle. Time will tell, of course, but I think many a news anchor and activist will have egg on their faces (again) come November.
That might be true to an extent, but keep in mind the districts we have had these special elections in have been in traditionally very Republican districts. Control of the House is not going to be determined by who wins a district like OH-12 in which has been solidly Republican and Trump and Romney both won by 11 points.
Control of the House is generally going to come down to results in districts Republicans hold that Trump lost in or won fairly narrowly in.
That might be true to an extent, but keep in mind the districts we have had these special elections in have been in traditionally very Republican districts. Control of the House is not going to be determined by who wins a district like OH-12 in which has been solidly Republican and Trump and Romney both won by 11 points.
Control of the House is generally going to come down to results in districts Republicans hold that Trump lost in or won fairly narrowly in.
Even in those districts, though, the GOP is batting pretty well during these special elections (I'm thinking Tom Price's old district in Georgia, etc.). We shall see, though. I'm always excited during election time.
Even in those districts, though, the GOP is batting pretty well during these special elections (I'm thinking Tom Price's old district in Georgia, etc.). We shall see, though. I'm always excited during election time.
Price's district was close in the 2016 Presidential race, but was a traditionally very Republican district and still is down ballot. Romney won the district by 21 points. There really hasn't been a special election in a swing district.
One thing we have seen is the suburban areas continue to swing towards the Democrats (this is probably most visible in the suburban/rural hybird districts like OH-12 & PA-18) which could potentially cause issues for the GOP in the fall in suburban districts that weren't stretched out to the rural areas the way those two were.
Price's district was close in the 2016 Presidential race, but was a traditionally very Republican district and still is down ballot. Romney won the district by 21 points. There really hasn't been a special election in a swing district.
One thing we have seen is the suburban areas continue to swing towards the Democrats (this is probably most visible in the suburban/rural hybird districts like OH-12 & PA-18) which could potentially cause issues for the GOP in the fall in suburban districts that weren't stretched out to the rural areas the way those two were.
This was a swing district per the 2016 election, which was largely the result of Trump's popularity. That was the baseline. I'd imagine that if folks were so upset with Trump in a district that he barely won, the Dem candidate should've done better (i.e. won), especially with talk of a blue wave coming. But the special election in that race seemed to have excited voters on both sides of the aisle (note, including many traditionally leaning conservative voters who shunned Trump in 2016), which is why (I suspect) the Dems did not win; their enthusiasm was not unchecked. Who knows, though.
Its down over 2 points from last week. And is down even more if you remove the outlier Quinnipiac poll having them up by 12 from July 23 . . . note, that poll will be dropped from the average as time goes by.
As I predicted: once that ridiculous outlier of a poll showing a 12 point Dem advantage was removed from the generic ballot average due to being outdated, the Dem average has further declined, this time to 3.9%: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html
Very interesting to continue watching developments. While nothing is set in stone and a lot can still happen, something tells me that the left and MSM are going to be having another meltdown this November.
Even in those districts, though, the GOP is batting pretty well during these special elections (I'm thinking Tom Price's old district in Georgia, etc.). We shall see, though. I'm always excited during election time.
Tom Price's old district should have a heavy Republican lean. Handel winning by less than 4% is a win but it also shows that Republicans have an uphill climb. If all the suburban races show the swing in votes from R to D that we saw with Handle, Balderson and Conor Lamb that will be a big problem for Republicans. Its the equivalent of Hilary 'only' losing a couple of percentage points from Obama's totals. Those couple of percent put WI, MI and PA in the R column. If the trend continues for house races Ds will not win solid R districts but they will be able to take enough swing and slightly R districts to put together a House Majority.
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