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Demographics are shifting here and the old hope of "turning Texas blue" is beginning to be whispered. Again. And, like it always has before, it's still a pipe dream.
But the day may come when TX turns purple.
When that happens, the GOP is toast.
Because TX is the only big state that has been reliably red for the past generation. When the shift occurs, Pubs won't have an electoral strong box to rely on any more.
Add Georgia to that mix, with many Northeasterners settling in ATL. If the nomination of Abrams for governor is a hint! Add North Carolina and Virginia. Also, take out the voter ID/suppression laws, and these states may are beginning to turn blue, due to the reverse migration!
The fact that most people, regardless of race or background become more conservative as they age, gain experience and accumulate wealth. With age, individuals gain a better understanding of reality and don’t wish to see their work taxed away.
I hope Michigan goes red again in 2020, it's on my list of places to move to. The reason demographic change hasn't helped democrats is because they are focusing only on non whites, while more and more White people are moving towards the GOP. The democratic party has essentially become the party of "screw white people". You can't win elections by focusing only on non white people in a country that is majority White. .
Heard an interview long ago when Willie Randolph managed Mets that he said (paraphrased) : "we run until they stop us". Same concept. Run the 2016 RC/Trump model, again and again.
MAGA. Build from base out, 45. We showed the world how potent a weapon paying attention to the forgotten working class is.
I actually think this is the best strategy. It worked for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012. Where the Dems went wrong is running a triangulating, third way, 1990s relic who after 25 years on the national scene had never developed an ability to relate to voters. Mid-terms area always about countering or rewarding who is in the White House. This year the Senate map gives Rs a strong buffer. The House is another matter entirely since many of those races are being contested in subrurban areas that are trending from R to D.
In 2020 the Dems first priority is to shore up there base. There are enough liberals who sat it out and minority votes in Wayne County (Michigan), Dane County (Wisconsin) and Philly to throw those three states back to Dems. Next up is having a candidate people like and somewhat trust- that would have banked another 1% for Dems. From there Democrats are going to have to hammer hard at there 'new' constituency- educated suburbanites and those folks with labor/manufacturing/agriculture jobs that are going to be negatively impacted by threatened trade wars. Trade difficulties with Canada will also drive up construction costs on Wisconsin/Minnesota. In Iowa I think we'll see a noticeable swing towards Dems if the candidate visits and hammers home the ag jobs that could be lost with wackadoodle trade policies.
Nope. If the Democrats want a shot in 2020. all they have to do is follow the Republican playbook.
The GOP regained their lost voters by going straight to the base, learning the local and state issues and concerns, and finding candidates who would respond to those issues.
Once they regained their House majority, the national issues that were winners eventually emerged in 2016. With no repenting or remorse offered. Or wanted.
Expect the same thing in this election from the Democrats as the situation has turned completely on its head since the 2010 election. Now it is the Republican party that has a lot to answer for, and their playbook will still work to motivate the Democrats. Why?
Because it works like a double bladed axe. When one side gets dulled, all you have to do is flip the axe over and use the sharp edge. The Republican toadies in Congress have made the Republican side of the axe mighty dull.
But the thing is that The Democrats aren't playing by the Republican playbook. They are focusing too much on transgender bathrooms, welfare, amnesty for illegals, the welcoming of refugees, and Political Correctness. Until they get off that stuff, they will be hard pressed to win in The Rust Belt, and as we all know, without The Rust Belt, no path to 270.
But the thing is that The Democrats aren't playing by the Republican playbook. They are focusing too much on transgender bathrooms, welfare, amnesty for illegals, the welcoming of refugees, and Political Correctness. Until they get off that stuff, they will be hard pressed to win in The Rust Belt, and as we all know, without The Rust Belt, no path to 270.
I dont see a single thing that suggests anyone voted against Democrats for any of those issues. Although, no Demcorat supports amnesty for illegals( thats libertarians you are thinking of).
The fact that most people, regardless of race or background become more conservative as they age, gain experience and accumulate wealth. With age, individuals gain a better understanding of reality and don’t wish to see their work taxed away.
That’s an old adage wrongly attributed to Winston Churchill, not a fact. If it were true, studies would uniformly show each generation getting more conservative as they age. Instead studies by Pew show that the political identity of a generation forms in early adulthood and most people retain that identity for the rest of their lives. In the articles linked below there are charts that show survey results for the Silent, Boomer and Gen-X generations from 1994 to 2017 and Millennials from 2006 to 2018, Only the Silent generation grew appreciably more Republican. Boomers stayed roughly the same since 1994 (actually a little more Democratic) while Gen-Xers went from R + 4 in 1994 to D+ 10 in 2018. Millennials started at D+ 23 in 2006 and in 2018 we’re D+33 in 2018.
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The most recent Pew Research Survey has more detail about the generational divide. It shows that the old saw that young people would naturally grow more conservative as they age, or that their Democratic loyalties were an idiosyncratic response to Barack Obama’s unique personal appeal, has not held. Younger voters have distinctly more liberal views than older voters:
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It is hard to focus on this trend at a moment when Republicans have full control of government, and are heading into an election where gerrymandering gives them a large advantage in maintaining Congress. But this fact runs headlong against a much longer deterioration of the conservative position within the electorate. Many conservatives supported Trump precisely because they were panicked about this trend. So far, Trump is merely accelerating the demise they feared.
In the long run, as John Maynard Keynes quipped, “We are all dead.” But over the long run, the Republicans are especially dead.
That’s an old adage wrongly attributed to Winston Churchill, not a fact. If it were true, studies would uniformly show each generation getting more conservative as they age. Instead studies by Pew show that the political identity of a generation forms in early adulthood and most people retain that identity for the rest of their lives. In the articles linked below there are charts that show survey results for the Silent, Boomer and Gen-X generations from 1994 to 2017 and Millennials from 2006 to 2018, Only the Silent generation grew appreciably more Republican. Boomers stayed roughly the same since 1994 (actually a little more Democratic) while Gen-Xers went from R + 4 in 1994 to D+ 10 in 2018. Millennials started at D+ 23 in 2006 and in 2018 we’re D+33 in 2018.
That survey shows 'Young people are staying liberal". It measures young people and says they are liberal, which we already know. As those young people mature, gain wealth and grow older, they will become more conservative and that study doesn't address that one way or the other. The people defined as 'young' are just that, 'young'.
As they age, and presumably mature, they will have something to conserve - homes, savings, children, etc.
That survey shows 'Young people are staying liberal". It measures young people and says they are liberal, which we already know. As those young people mature, gain wealth and grow older, they will become more conservative and that study doesn't address that one way or the other. The people defined as 'young' are just that, 'young'.
As they age, and presumably mature, they will have something to conserve - homes, savings, children, etc.
Some individuals become more conservative as they age, but as a group, generations tend to keep the political identity they form in young adulthood. If the old adage had merit, you should see a consistent, straight line drift to conservatism as a generation ages. You don’t see that at all. Check out the generational graphs. They track the generations for the past 24 years. Gen-Xers and Millennials are growing more Democratic as they age, not less, which is the exact opposite of the old saying. The youngest of Gen-X is 38 with the oldest about 54. When is the shift to the right supposed to happen? When they’re 65? Silents are the only living generation that has grown appreciably more Republican, and even then it was only about a 6 point shift since 1994.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-27-2018 at 08:36 AM..
But the thing is that The Democrats aren't playing by the Republican playbook. They are focusing too much on transgender bathrooms, welfare, amnesty for illegals, the welcoming of refugees, and Political Correctness. Until they get off that stuff, they will be hard pressed to win in The Rust Belt, and as we all know, without The Rust Belt, no path to 270.
correct
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