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Democrats have been banking on demographic change to be the ultimate long term solution to gaining power. But the 'White non Hispanic' population is at by far it's lowest point since the first European settlements took root in the 1600s and yet Democrats are at their lowest level of control in over 100 years.
Looking at the way seats have switched since the mid 1990s you would think it was Democrats facing a declining voter base, not the GOP.
What do you think are the causes and will this change? Will the demographics eventually shift enough to overcome the GOP?
Gerrymandering, the Electoral College and Russia are the reasons why.
Unless the Democrats return to the early 20th century model they used of holding the wwc in high esteem, they will remain a regional party-with little power beyond the west coast or Acela Belt side of the East Coast.
WWC will remain the key to the Rust Belt plus Pa, and they showed they found the DNC candidates deplorable. 2016 was their great awakening. They now understand that by increasing their turnout rate as they did in 2016, they are the critical mass required to insure the Deplorable Dems they abhor are watching from the sidelines, inauguration day.
In those key states, demographic change is at most glacial, where it counts, specifically rural portions of each-which comprise a high % of those statewide who actually vote.
Last edited by BobNJ1960; 06-17-2018 at 10:58 AM..
. Yes, the percentage of the voting-public that's non-college-educated whites is inexorably declining. But the GOP has indeed been successful with increasing its share of other groups, and I think that this trend will persist.
Even if the "Trump coalition" will decline and diminish, Trump-type of issues are pervasive, and will continue to sway voters. .
There were 2 candidates who did not "carte blanche" endorse NAFTA as is-Trump and Sanders. Both overachieved at the polls in the primaries in the Rust Belt. The one on November ballot won those same states.
This is also true of Vietnamese. I have a few friends from there, all Republicans.
Yep, I have some Hmong immigrant friends from Vietnam. They're all small business owners and vote Republican. They help each other get started with a community-based business microloan system.
As for the old adage that people grow more politically conservative as they grow older, here’s a quote from Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson from 2017.
Quote:
For the better part of the last decade, I've been waging war on this misconception. Why? It gives people on the right of the political aisle an excuse to shrug off concerns that the millennial generation is left-leaning in its politics. It offers the appealing illusion that the slow passage of time and setting in of reality is the only ingredient necessary for turning today's naive little liberals into tomorrow's wise and rational conservatives.
Nonsense and fresh data from the Pew Research Center underscores the extent to which the kids these days, and their counterparts in "Generation X", are not only not making the hoped-for slow march toward the political right, but drift ever more leftward, even as they age.
The young may lean left today, the old may lean right, but according to Pew's new study of tens of thousands of voters, the last 15 years have only widened the gap. Rather than showing all generations on parallel tracks, gradually evolving toward conservatism and the GOP as time passes, both the millennial generation (roughly: those born in the 1980s and 1990s) and Generation X (the folks sandwiched between millennials and 1964's late Boomers) have gotten more liberal in the last decade.
As for the old adage that people grow more politically conservative as they grow older, here’s a quote from Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson from 2017.
Leftie comfort food as they hold neither House, Senate, POTUS, majority Governor offices, majority state houses..
As your base gets smaller every year.
...tick, tick, tick
A leading Republican millennial pollster says the Republican comfort food of the younger generations growing more conservative as they age is a self-deluding fantasy. It’s not happening.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-17-2018 at 09:04 PM..
A leading Republican millennial pollster says the Republican comfort food of the younger generations growing more conservative as they age is a self-deluding fantasy. It’s not happening.
and as have gained 1,200 seats in a decade, and will add several Senate seats this year given the MAGA-nificient map.
Some of the states with the most non-whites are the most conservative (Alabama and Mississippi) while some are the most liberal (Hawaii and California). Some of the states with the most whites are the most liberal (Vermont) while some are the most conservative (Idaho). So the white proportion of the population is not determinative.
For the Democrats to bet it all on Judis and Teixeira's strategy is reckless. For one, it could take decades for the strategy to play out. And two, it sucks the oxygen out of policy making and party building, two critical areas where Democrats have lagged for a decade.
Why arent the tens of millions of poor immigrants we purposely let in, who are destroying our middle class and straining our resources, voting for the socialist policies that destroyed their home countries?
Last edited by cttransplant85; 06-17-2018 at 10:16 PM..
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