The tough Senate map for Democrats is looking a little less tough (September 11, voters)

[James Bond 007]

Could the democrats pull an upset and take the senate after all? It's looking possible right now.

A note in addition to the article: A recent poll of the Missouri senate race has McCaskill ahead by a small amount.

The tough Senate map for Democrats is looking a little less tough

Retaking the Senate in 2018 was always a tough climb for Democrats because they are defending 10 seats in states that Donald Trump won in 2016. But that difficult terrain is looking a little less daunting these days, as new polling has led some election forecasters to believe several of those states are actually quite safely in Democratic hands.

Over the past few weeks, Democrats seem to have shored up their positions in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has a double-digit polling lead on his Republican opponent; Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) was always the favorite but now appears absolutely safe; and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) — maybe the most vulnerable of the bunch and up for her first reelection in a state Republicans had been dominating — also seems to be on solid ground.

[bellhead]

Polls this week..

Polls this week..
Montana Senate - Rosendale vs. Tester Gravis Tester 52, Rosendale 44 Tester +8
North Dakota Senate - Cramer vs. Heitkamp Mason-Dixon Cramer 48, Heitkamp 44 Cramer +4
West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin Monmouth Manchin 50, Morrisey 43 Manchin +7
Wisconsin Senate - Nicholson vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 50, Nicholson 39 Baldwin +11
Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 49, Vukmir 40 Baldwin +9
Pennsylvania Senate - Barletta vs. Casey Franklin & Marshall Casey 44, Barletta 27 Casey +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Quinnipiac Brown 51, Renacci 34 Brown +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Suffolk Brown 53, Renacci 37 Brown +16
New York Senate - Farley vs. Gillibrand Siena Gillibrand 61, Farley 28 Gillibrand +33
Florida Bill - Nelson vs. Rick Scott Gravis Nelson 50, Scott 40 Nelson 10+
Missouri- MacCaskill vs. Hawley GSG MacCaskill 47, Hawley 41 MacCasckill +6
Florida - Nelson vs. Rick Scott PPP Nelson 46, Scott 44 Nelson +2

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Polls this week..

Polls this week..
Montana Senate - Rosendale vs. Tester Gravis Tester 52, Rosendale 44 Tester +8
North Dakota Senate - Cramer vs. Heitkamp Mason-Dixon Cramer 48, Heitkamp 44 Cramer +4
West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin Monmouth Manchin 50, Morrisey 43 Manchin +7
Wisconsin Senate - Nicholson vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 50, Nicholson 39 Baldwin +11
Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 49, Vukmir 40 Baldwin +9
Pennsylvania Senate - Barletta vs. Casey Franklin & Marshall Casey 44, Barletta 27 Casey +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Quinnipiac Brown 51, Renacci 34 Brown +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Suffolk Brown 53, Renacci 37 Brown +16
New York Senate - Farley vs. Gillibrand Siena Gillibrand 61, Farley 28 Gillibrand +33
Florida Bill - Nelson vs. Rick Scott Gravis Nelson 50, Scott 40 Nelson 10+
Missouri- MacCaskill vs. Hawley GSG MacCaskill 47, Hawley 41 MacCasckill +6
Florida - Nelson vs. Rick Scott PPP Nelson 46, Scott 44 Nelson +2

Rick Scott is one of the more interesting people in politics
He has been elected governor twice, winning by less than 50%(little over 48% both times) and only by 1.2% and .07(64,000 and 62,000 votes)

[jennifercheswold]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Polls this week..

Polls this week..
Montana Senate - Rosendale vs. Tester Gravis Tester 52, Rosendale 44 Tester +8
North Dakota Senate - Cramer vs. Heitkamp Mason-Dixon Cramer 48, Heitkamp 44 Cramer +4
West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin Monmouth Manchin 50, Morrisey 43 Manchin +7
Wisconsin Senate - Nicholson vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 50, Nicholson 39 Baldwin +11
Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 49, Vukmir 40 Baldwin +9
Pennsylvania Senate - Barletta vs. Casey Franklin & Marshall Casey 44, Barletta 27 Casey +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Quinnipiac Brown 51, Renacci 34 Brown +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Suffolk Brown 53, Renacci 37 Brown +16
New York Senate - Farley vs. Gillibrand Siena Gillibrand 61, Farley 28 Gillibrand +33
Florida Bill - Nelson vs. Rick Scott Gravis Nelson 50, Scott 40 Nelson 10+
Missouri- MacCaskill vs. Hawley GSG MacCaskill 47, Hawley 41 MacCasckill +6
Florida - Nelson vs. Rick Scott PPP Nelson 46, Scott 44 Nelson +2

What polls are you looking at for Florida????

The RCP average has Nelson up by 1.4%, but this advantage comes from polls conducted back in early 2018. The most recent polls conducted up to June 4th (FL Chamber and Florida Atlantic University) have Scott up +4 and +3 respectively.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by jennifercheswold

What polls are you looking at for Florida????

The RCP average has Nelson up by 1.4%, but this advantage comes from polls conducted back in early 2018. The most recent polls conducted up to June 4th (FL Chamber and Florida Atlantic University) have Scott up +4 and +3 respectively.

He is up 9 50+ voters, and they are 2/3rd of Fl vote.

[dsjj251]

All of yall are being Biased on the florida polls, so im just going to post as many as I can find



Bill Nelson (D) Rick Scott (R) Other Undecided

Public Policy Polling (D) June 18–19, 2018 1,308 – 48% 46% – 7%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 1,251 ± 2.8% 50% 40% – 10%
Cherry Communications May 25 – June 4, 2018 605 ± 4.0% 45% 48% – 5%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 34% 40% 8% 18%
Morning Consult May 29–30, 2018 1,199 ± 3.0% 39% 40% – –
Florida Atlantic University May 4–7, 2018 1,000 ± 3.0% 40% 44% – 16%
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 ± 3.9% 50% 44% – 6%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 2,211± 2.1% 44% 40% – 16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC) March 10–13, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 46% 47% – 6%
Clearview Research March 1–7, 2018 750 ± 3.6% 41% 43% – 16%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,806 – 53% 43% – 4%
Quinnipiac University February 23–26, 2018 1,156 ± 3.6% 46% 42% 2% 9%
Florida Atlantic University February 23–25, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 40% 38% – 22%
Saint Leo University February 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 35% 42% 9% 15%
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 1,978 ± 2.2% 44% 40% – 16%
Florida Atlantic University February 1–4, 2018 750 ± 3.7% 34% 44% – 22%
University of North Florida January 29 – February 4, 2018 429 ± 4.7% 48% 42% 2% 7%
Mason-Dixon January 30 – February 1, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% – 11%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 5,778 ± 1.3% 44% 39% – 17%
Saint Leo University November 19–24, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 32% 42% 8% 18%
Mason-Dixon October 17–19, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 44% 44% – 12%
University of North Florida October 11–17, 2017 706 ± 3.4% 37% 36% 7% 20%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 615 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – 8%
Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2017 500 ± 4.5% 33% 35% 11% 21%
Florida Atlantic University August 24–26, 2017 800 ± 4.0% 42% 40% – 18%
Gravis Marketing April 4–10, 2017 1,243 ± 2.8% 56% 28% – 16%
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 52% 37% – 12%
Cherry Communications March 6–14, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42% – 10%
Saint Leo University March 3–11, 2017 507 ± 4.5% 39% 34% 10% 17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) March 1–5, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 46% 44% – 10%
Mason-Dixon February 24–28, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 46% 41% – 13%
University of North Florida February 13–26, 2017 957 ± 3.1% 44% 38% 3% 12%
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 2016 3,250 ± 2.4% 51% 38% – 11%
Public Policy Polling September 4–6, 2016 744 ± 3.6% 45% 41% – 14%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 46% 42% – 12%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 47% 43% – 10%


The most recent polls have Nelson up, but there are enough there to argue that a 10 point lead isnt real for either candidate.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by jennifercheswold

What polls are you looking at for Florida????

The RCP average has Nelson up by 1.4%, but this advantage comes from polls conducted back in early 2018. The most recent polls conducted up to June 4th (FL Chamber and Florida Atlantic University) have Scott up +4 and +3 respectively.

The two polls where by Gravis & PPP, both were released this week. Both of the polls mentioned the Trump tax cuts & how people were souring on them. Scott is getting dragged down by Trump some as mentioned in the polls.

Nelson should get a bump here soon as he will be back in Florida campaigning during the summer break.

Throw the Fl. Chamber poll out, as it was a in house poll. The Fl. Chamber is a big sponsor/backer of Scott.

[JRR]

Originally Posted by dsjj251

Rick Scott is one of the more interesting people in politics
He has been elected governor twice, winning by less than 50%(little over 48% both times) and only by 1.2% and .07(64,000 and 62,000 votes)

And he had to spend almost $100 million of his own money to eke out those wins. If there ever was a perfect example of "bought a governorship", it would be that first race (spent over $75 million to win by 64,000 votes).

[dashrendar4454]

Originally Posted by bellhead

The two polls where by Gravis & PPP, both were released this week. Both of the polls mentioned the Trump tax cuts & how people were souring on them. Scott is getting dragged down by Trump some as mentioned in the polls.

Nelson should get a bump here soon as he will be back in Florida campaigning during the summer break.

Throw the Fl. Chamber poll out, as it was a in house poll. The Fl. Chamber is a big sponsor/backer of Scott.

I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat favoring polls we can throw out as well

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by dashrendar4454

I'm sure there are plenty of Democrat favoring polls we can throw out as well

There will be... When it's a house poll like the chamber poll then it's a big red flag. If your Scott though you are only up 2 on a house poll which is pretty scary.