Midterm elections blue wave looking doubtful says CBS news head pollster (house seat, of representatives)
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We will just have to see what happens. All of the guessing in the world makes no difference; the only poll that matters is the final one on November 6.
We will just have to see what happens. All of the guessing in the world makes no difference; the only poll that matters is the final one on November 6.
Yep. I agree. I think President Trump has turned the old way of things upside down. He won states no GOP candidate won in 30 years....wouldn't surprise me if districts turn red and blue that were previously different.
“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” Salvanto said to the Post. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.”
LOL -- This is definitely saying -- NOTHING -- lol.
The guy says it is a toss up -- he doesn't say the blue way looks doubtful -- -- that's not what a toss up means....lololol
This is as funny as those saying Trump will be gone any day now -- lolololol.
We will just have to see what happens. All of the guessing in the world makes no difference; the only poll that matters is the final one on November 6.
No guessing needed. I said this more than 2 years ago on this forum. It hasn't changed except that maybe the Deranged have gotten more desperate and loud, and the MSM is now exposed for what it is.
It turned out to be 100% true despite the fact that in that topic and countless others, they said the Democrats were slated for big wins, and that I didn't know what I was talking about.
I see no "Blue Wave". Democrats might pick up a few where there are very bad Republicans as there is ilk in both parties that need to go. Is the country ready to put Nancy Pelosi & Maxine Waters back in charge of the House of Representatives? I don't think so.
No guessing needed. I said this more than 2 years ago on this forum. It hasn't changed except that maybe the Deranged have gotten more desperate and loud, and the MSM is now exposed for what it is.
It turned out to be 100% true despite the fact that in that topic and countless others, they said the Democrats were slated for big wins, and that I didn't know what I was talking about.
I see no "Blue Wave". Democrats might pick up a few where there are very bad Republicans as there is ilk in both parties that need to go. Is the country ready to put Nancy Pelosi & Maxine Waters back in charge of the House of Representatives? I don't think so.
I have a feeling we won't see a Blue Wave ..... more likely things will remain as they are in terms of numbers. Either party could gain a few seats here and there, but I don't see control of the House or Senate changing.
It’s ironic that the OP started this thread on the same day that the CBS Battleground Tracker released this morning ups their estimate of Democratic leaning House seats from 219 seats to 222.
Quote:
CBS News Battleground Tracker: “Democrats have improved their standing in the fight for control of the House of Representatives. Our House model now shows the party poised to win 222 seats if the election were today, up from our estimate of 219 earlier this summer. The range on that estimate is plus or minus 11 seats, or 5% of House seats.”
Anthony Salvanto: “The Democrats are in a stronger position to take the House.”
Bottom line: There is no certitude in predictions. They are just educated assessments of the tea leaves. But the tea leaves are trending away from the Republicans rather than towards them. The latest 538 guesstimate is anywhere from about a 10 seat gain for the Democrats to a 60 seat gain with 23 needed to flip the House. Their current guess is about 35 +D, which would flip control by 12 seats.
You don't even need to look at polls. All of the special election results over the last year show massive D advantage over historical numbers. That probably will subside a bit in Nov when both parties are more equally motivated to vote in a general election, but I still think it is clear that Ds will make substantial gains.
No guessing needed. I said this more than 2 years ago on this forum. It hasn't changed except that maybe the Deranged have gotten more desperate and loud, and the MSM is now exposed for what it is.
It turned out to be 100% true despite the fact that in that topic and countless others, they said the Democrats were slated for big wins, and that I didn't know what I was talking about.
I see no "Blue Wave". Democrats might pick up a few where there are very bad Republicans as there is ilk in both parties that need to go. Is the country ready to put Nancy Pelosi & Maxine Waters back in charge of the House of Representatives? I don't think so.
It's still a guess (albeit one that was correct). Unless you are some type of prophet, you got lucky with a good guess. Guessing well once doesn't mean your guess is correct again. Seriously, the only thing we can do is wait and see... we all have our guesses, and some of us will be right and some of us will be wrong.
My guess is that the Democrats will end up controlling the House via a narrow margin and that the Senate spread will remain extremely close to even, if not 50-50, though I don't know who will be the one-up party, if there is one. (And if it is even, then of course the Republicans are in control due to Pence being the tie-breaker.) If I'm right or if I'm wrong, though, it's still all just a guess.
You don't even need to look at polls. All of the special election results over the last year show massive D advantage over historical numbers. That probably will subside a bit in Nov when both parties are more equally motivated to vote in a general election, but I still think it is clear that Ds will make substantial gains.
gains, most likely: this is what always happens in mid term elections: substantial, that is still somewhat up in the air.
I don't see how anyone can really think the Dems will take over or even come all that close to taking over the senate.
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