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The principal cities of southwest Kansas (Liberal, Garden City and Dodge City) have virtually majority Hispanic populations today. If the Republican party's key voices continue to take an overly strident tone on immigration issues, they could see a gradual erosion of support in this region of the state. There are a lot of meat packing jobs in this region that have little appeal to Americans and the area's demographics have shifted accordingly.
Those three communities would be considered small towns in some states.
That was just my initial excursion into Kansas. Since then, much more extensive driving through it has only reinforced my view. The entire northeastern Manhattan-to-KCK corridor is going to become blue. It's already starting to happen. And that northeastern corridor is starting to dominate the state's population more and more. The rural areas, which have been the red bedrock of the state, are depopulating.
Kansas right now is somewhat similar to what North Carolina was about 20 years ago. And as we know, NC has become competitive for democrats of late. And yes, I'm familiar with both states. Back then, NC's economy was increasingly becoming a tech and services dominated economy rather than a manufacturing and resources economy. People in the tech and services sector are increasingly blue. The northeastern Kansas economy - not unlike Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte - have started becoming increasingly tech and service dominated. Johnson County looks like a giant Cary or north Raleigh or south Durham, times 10. You even see Indian tech workers everywhere in Overland Park these days. Sometimes I think it looks more like the suburbs of Seattle than (stereotypical) suburbs of Kansas City.
Johnson County is already more than 20% of Kansas' population. And it's going blue.
North Carolina has always been competitive for Democrats except for 02-04 and then after the redistricting following 2010. And even the former hard right governor snuck in by running as a moderate. Democrats seem to win one of the US senate seats about every other election.
I cannot see any type of Kansas to Manhattan corridor because it crosses too many disparate states. Ohio is trending more Red and Indiana is blood red. Only a highly skilled Dem (Sherrod Brown) or inept R (the idiot who ran against Donnelly in 2012) will shift those states. I think we are more likely to see a Southwestern blue corridor before then- specifically Ca, Az, NM and Texas. But that will take a decade to fully flush out. And some of that shift will be at the expense of Dem numbers in the states that see a lot of citizens relocating to the Sunbelt.
North Carolina has always been competitive for Democrats except for 02-04 and then after the redistricting following 2010.
I was largely referring to presidential elections. Since 1964, democrats have carried NC only twice - in 1976 when Southerner Jimmy Carter won, and 2008. Not even Bill Clinton carried it. However, since 2008 it's been pretty close in NC, with Obama carrying it that year. In 2012 Obama lost it by only a couple % points, and in 2016 Trump won it by only a few % points. So it's definitely gotten more competitive.
If there’s a trend to watch in this, it’s the lack of enthusiasm for the Trump version of the Republican Party in upscale suburbia, even in deep red states. Rather than seeing a split between red and blue states, it’s more descriptive to say it’s a nationwide split between urban and suburbs with high concentrations of college grads on one side and exurbs and rural areas on the other. It’s not so pronounced in the Deep South because you don’t see such dramatic splits between white college and white blue collar, but you can find examples there also.
LOL Horse feathers!
But I love your typical (for Dems) attempt to denigrate Trump supporters by suggesting an educational disparity-- a disparity which always manages to disregard the uneducated urban population who vote overwhelmingly Democrat.
If there’s a trend to watch in this, it’s the lack of enthusiasm for the Trump version of the Republican Party in upscale suburbia, even in deep red states. Rather than seeing a split between red and blue states, it’s more descriptive to say it’s a nationwide split between urban and suburbs with high concentrations of college grads on one side and exurbs and rural areas on the other. It’s not so pronounced in the Deep South because you don’t see such dramatic splits between white college and white blue collar, but you can find examples there also.
1) In places like Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, Metro LA, etc, many people leave urban areas and move into suburbs or outlying areas because cost of living has shot up in the past few years.
2) Residents from Blue states like New York, California, New Jersey, Illinois, etc...move to Red states like Texas, Arizona, Florida, because taxes are low and housing is affordable. Sadly, many people from blue states bring their beliefs with them and change the political climate of those states.
But I love your typical (for Dems) attempt to denigrate Trump supporters by suggesting an educational disparity-- a disparity which always manages to disregard the uneducated urban population who vote overwhelmingly Democrat.
According to a Pew Research Center poll released this week, Democrats are now the party of college graduates, especially those with post-graduate work. Meanwhile, people with a high-school degree or less, by far the larger group, slightly lean toward Republicans.
Both preferences are the reverse of what they were in the 1990s.
According to Pew, 54 percent of college graduates either identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared to 39 percent who identified or leaned Republican. One-third of Americans have a college degree.
Now, back to the topic at hand, the Manhattan-to-KCK corridor is increasingly filled with techies and service workers in jobs requiring college degrees. Not to mention that Manhattan (home of K State) and Lawrence (home of KU) are pretty big college towns (Lawrence these days is pretty liberal). The techies and other white collar workers in suburban Johnson County, mirroring nationwide trends, are increasingly voting democratic. As this part of the state becomes increasingly urbanized, it will become increasingly democratic.
Of course, there is still a lot of the rest of the state, which is still predominantly red and likely will be for a long while, which is why I don't ever think Kansas will become a blue state, but it definitely has the potential to become a purple state.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75
The principal cities of southwest Kansas (Liberal, Garden City and Dodge City) have virtually majority Hispanic populations today. If the Republican party's key voices continue to take an overly strident tone on immigration issues, they could see a gradual erosion of support in this region of the state. There are a lot of meat packing jobs in this region that have little appeal to Americans and the area's demographics have shifted accordingly.
I can verify this from my days of OTR trucking, I used to have to go to the National Beef plants in all 3 towns. The majority of meat packers are Mexican nationals and other Central Americans now, due to how poorly the job pays now for how horrible it is
Not in Kansas, you don't. There are enough conservatives there to form a majority in government.
Well, yeah, if there remains enough conservatives. But the majority of conservatives are in rural areas, which are thinning out in population.
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a disparity which always manages to disregard the uneducated urban population who vote overwhelmingly Democrat.