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Michael Bloomberg, mingling with the peasants and taking regard of the "Barbecue" that he is now apparently expected to eat. LOL.
He looks like a fish out of water there, in his thousands of dollars suit and tie mingling with peasants in their jeans. And looks uncomfortable being in that place rather than a corporate boardroom.
Leftist pollster wunderkind Nate Silver - who is widely loved and adored by many on the left because he predicted that Barack Obama would win his races - has developed a new prediction model for the upcoming primary contest for the Democrats (Trump gets a bye to the general election, so the Republicans will not have a primary contest this year).
Based on this prediction model, he observes that will Joe Biden is the "Frontrunner" in the contest, he is not in a strong enough position to be considered the "Favorite" to win the contest.
But saying the former vice president is the front-runner doesn’t really tell the whole story. He may be the most likely nominee, but he’s still a slight underdog relative to the field, with a 40 percent chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates1 by the time of the last scheduled Democratic contest — the Virgin Islands caucus on June 6.
Iowa matters … a lot
How candidates’ chances of winning a majority or plurality of delegates changes if they win Iowa, according to FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast.
{Chart at the link}
Biden, for instance, would be a heavy favorite if he wins Iowa, with an 80 percent chance of a delegate majority and an 84 percent chance of a plurality. His majority chances would fall to 20 percent following an Iowa loss, however. Sanders would be a slight favorite to win a majority after an Iowa win, with a 61 percent chance, but his majority chances would fall to 8 percent with a loss there. Warren would also be a slight favorite to win a delegate majority after an Iowa win, but Buttigieg would not be (although his position would be substantially strengthened).
The article is reasonably long and wonky in the way that Nate Silver articles typically are.
Silver thinks the outcome in Iowa - the first contest on February 3, could go a long way to deciding who wins the nomination. So if this is right, it makes sense that any candidate that is truly trying to win the nomination should be pulling out all the stops and launching whatever campaign weaponry they have over the next 24 days. I am not so sure that it is as important as all of that, but whoever wins will be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future, that a virtual certainty.
So if Biden wins in Iowa, then the probability (according to Silver) that he wins the nomination is 80%. Wow, that is high. Likewise, if Sanders wins, the probability that he wins the nomination - based on Silver's "prediction model" is 61%.
I will at this point very likely vote for Bernie Sanders in the Texas primary on Super Tuesday on March 3 (just after the first four primaries). I am rooting for Bernie to win the nomination for the Democrats, so I hope he wins in Iowa, too. That being said, this 61% number that Silver has produced for Bernie, if he wins in Iowa, does not pass the smell test for me. That is too high. Yes, I am contradicting the leftist pollster wunderkind Nate Silver. While I hope he is right about that, I think he is probably wrong.
Silver regards Biden as the current favorite in Iowa, despite Biden being in third place in the RCP poll average, behind Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete. However, to be fair, the margin between first and third is 1.7 points, which is really too close to call.
In any case, it is now time for the top four candidates and any others who think they have a real chance in Iowa to pull out the long knives and get to work. The lengthy preseason is over. It is go time.
Tom Steyer must be fuming to watch his campaign flatline while fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg climbs briskly up the league tables, just as the actual voting is preparing to commence.
Tom Steyer must be fuming to watch his campaign flatline while fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg climbs briskly up the league tables, just as the actual voting is preparing to commence.
What does it take to beat a controversial billionaire?
There's a train of thought that says a less controversial billionaire.
Tom Steyer must be fuming to watch his campaign flatline while fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg climbs briskly up the league tables, just as the actual voting is preparing to commence.
Name recognition.
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