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In South Carolina, the firewall state of Joe Biden, Biden's lead is down to 3.7 points in the RCP Poll average. This is down from a peak of 18.7 points on January 8, just six weeks ago. All of the polls in this average were conducted after the New Hampshire Primary.
The South Carolina Primary will be held a week from tomorrow on February 29, 2020, just 3 days before Super Tuesday. Michael Bloomberg will again not be on the ballot in this state. He debuts on ballots everywhere on Super Tuesday.
It appears the this may be Joe Biden's Waterloo, although he has certainly not been in any way Napoleonic in his campaign at any point in this race, or at any point in his political career for that matter. Poor Joe. I feel bad for him watching him go down like this.
This is also going to be a major test for all of these candidates, especially in how much support they get from black voters. Joe Biden was supposed to have that block of support all wrapped up, but it seems that much of this was dependent on him being the "inevitable" nominee. Now that he is clearly not that anymore, those black voters are reevaluating their options.
If Bernie Sanders finishes strong among black voters in South Carolina, then batten down the hatches. He will not be easily stopped after that.
I am just guessing, but it seems that at least two of these candidates and very possibly three are out of this race before Super Tuesday. This contest will likely help them to clarify that choice. And don't forget Bloomberg, who will almost assuredly still be in the race on Super Tuesday, although his experience in the debate the other night appeared to provide him with a very rude awakening.
According to Politico, the campaigns of Warren, Biden and Buttigieg (and also Klobuchar) are struggling financially, with Super Tuesday fast approaching, now just 11 days away.
While Sanders started February with nearly $17 million in the bank, according to campaign finance disclosures filed Thursday night, his next closest rival (nonbillionaire class) was Biden, at $7.1 million. Warren was closest to the red, with just $2.3 million left in her account, while Buttigieg ($6.6 million) and Klobuchar ($2.9 million) were in between.
The cash crunch comes at a critical time in the race, with nearly one-third of the delegates available in the primary up for grabs on Super Tuesday on March 3 — and only a handful of candidates able to marshal resources to advertise to voters in those 14 states. It’s why super PACs, demonized at the beginning of the 2020 primary, are suddenly jumping in to assist most Democratic candidates, and it’s why the campaigns are now making ever more urgent pleas for financial help.
Bloomberg, fellow billionaire Tom Steyer and Sanders are the only candidates with more than $1 million in television advertising time already booked in the coming days in Super Tuesday states. Klobuchar has reserved about $874,000 so far in smaller states, skipping California and Texas, while Warren is advertising in smaller amounts in Colorado and Maine. Buttigieg has yet to reserve any TV ads beyond the South Carolina primary.
The sad fact is that money talks. Campaigns are not people and corporations are not people, but they are both vehicles of speech by people, and it takes money to get that message out and promoted to the right people in the right format at the right time.
One or two of these candidates is going to need to make a move here in the next few days to stay effectively alive in this race. Those that do not, their money will continue to evaporate and their campaigns will grow weaker and weaker.
Amy Klobuchar, playing the woman's card. This is very sad to see. She may not realize it, but this is a killer for her, if she continues to go down this path. It is just this kind of talk that causes many people to take women less seriously than men.
He is benefiting from male privilege and wouldn't be treated the same if he were a woman, she said. "Could we be running with less experience," Klobuchar asked rhetorically of women in an interview. "I don't think so. I don't think people would take us seriously."
The then-South Bend, Indiana, mayor had barely risen to national attention at that point in the Democratic primary fight, but that sentiment -- that Buttigieg had not paid his dues and would be dismissed if he were a woman -- has gnawed at the Minnesota senator ever since. And it has only grown as Buttigieg has outflanked her for the moderate lane in the primary, rising to a top finish in Iowa and a strong second place finish in New Hampshire.
To be fair, Buttigieg is lacking in experience, and is clearly quite weak in that area. However, Klobuchar would be better off just focusing intently on that point of weakness and staying well clear of playing the "Woman's card," or the "victim card". Both of these latter plays hurt her case for the presidency quite significantly.
Going back to the beginning of this thread in January 2019, I pointed to Klobuchar as a candidate that could bridge the various divides among the Democrats and who was probably the most difficult challenge for Trump among anyone discussed at that point who there was reason to believe would be a viable candidate.
Perhaps this is just going to be good experience for her and she can try again in 2024 or 2028. Because very much more of this kind of talk and she is going to be done for 2020.
Hold on to your hats people. The latest polls for the Nevada caucuses are in. Yesterday, the RCP poll average for Nevada showed Sanders over Biden by 3 points. Today, it is Sanders over Biden by 14 points.
This increase is due to a 8.5 point increase by Sanders and a 2.5 point decrease by Biden.
All four of the other candidates are up between 1-3 points. The only other candidate who is still on the map is Gabbard and she got effectively zero. Obviously, this has a lot to do with the other candidates falling out of the race.
But Biden is the only candidate whose support got lower.
The one thing I am certain of is that the final results on Saturday will not exactly match this polling. That being said, 14 points? Wow. That is a pretty strong lead. Also, this is the first time I can recall seeing Sanders hit the 30% mark.
Sanders and Buttigieg are up, Warren and Steyer are down, Biden and Klobuchar are flat from the last average four days ago. At the same time, Buttigieg leapfrogged Warren and Steyer reverse-leapfrogged Klobuchar (who stayed flat in the polling).
It will be interesting to compare this with the actual results.
Chris Matthews suggests that the Democrats would be better off re-electing Trump for four more years than allowing Sanders to reshape the party, with all the historical baggage that would come with that.
This is apparently the thought process going through some leftists heads right now. It is not that they are opposed to what Bernie is promoting. In fact, they have brought this on themselves by aggressively promoting ideas and principles that are entirely consistent with what Bernie Sanders is promoting.
But with Bernie, they will have to own it all, hook, line and sinker, rod, reel and tackle-box.
In fact, if they even nominate Sanders, the Democrats will be the American Socialist party from now on. Sure there will be the spin, the deflection, the denials and the obfuscation. But the scarlett letter will have been effectively branded onto them.
So in that, Matthews is wrong. To escape the destiny that he is concerned with, the Democrats need to nominate someone more moderate than Sanders to begin with, at least someone who pretends to be more moderate, even if they really are not all that moderate. Rest assured, there are many of the leading thinkers for the Democrat political establishment who know this, too, and are working as we speak to figure out how to make sure he is not the nominee for the party in November.
President Trump congratulated Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders after he overwhelmingly won the Nevada caucuses. "It was a great win for Bernie Sanders," Trump told reporters outside the White House on Sunday. "We'll see how it all turns out. They have a lot of winning to do. I hope they treat him fairly."
Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist whose supporters have complained that the party's establishment does not want him to be the nominee, is now seen as the front-runner in the 2020 Democratic contest.
Trump has cheered Sanders's rise, banking on his supporters and undecided independents rejecting the Vermont senator's liberal policies in the general election this fall. "Frankly, I don't care who I run against; I just hope they treat him fairly," Trump said. "I hope it's not going to be a rigged deal. We'll see what happens."
It is so nice to see these folks getting along so well, even if it is just for a little while.
Do the people who talk like this not realize how absurdly silly and deranged that they come across as? The Russians. Seriously, get some new material, James. Either that, or maybe it is time for you to hang up your cleats and retire.
As an aside, it is about noon on the day after the Nevada primary and there are still less than 50% of the precincts reporting. If these people cannot even conduct a vote count for their own caucuses in a small population state like Nevada, why on Earth would anyone have any confidence in their capacity to run the US government?
This really is not as hard as the Democrats seem to be trying to make it. It really isn't.
As an aside, it is about noon on the day after the Nevada primary and there are still less than 50% of the precincts reporting. If these people cannot even conduct a vote count for their own caucuses in a small population state like Nevada, why on Earth would anyone have any confidence in their capacity to run the US government?
This really is not as hard as the Democrats seem to be trying to make it. It really isn't.
They probably figure most people don't care about the final results and have already moved onto South Carolina!
Please, sweet baby Jesus, let this be the last presidential primary with caucuses.
President Trump congratulates Bernie Sanders on a 'great win' in Nevada.
It is so nice to see these folks getting along so well, even if it is just for a little while.
Yup.
Because Trump KNOWS that Bernie is a real thing.
He might greatly dislike the message he carries, but he respects him for what he is, for not being a phony, like Bloomberg for example.
President Trump congratulates Bernie Sanders on a 'great win' in Nevada.
It is so nice to see these folks getting along so well, even if it is just for a little while.
Hopefully this means Trump has no problem with a peaceful transition of power to Bernie.
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