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49-2 happened twice. The Democrats seem to be headed for a similar loss, but I'll say 43-8 this time, 410-128 in electoral votes.
I doubt that. Trump really isn't that popular outside of the Bible Belt.
Trump will possibly win the electoral college and lose the popular vote, just like last time. It's going to be hard for him to hang onto the Rust Belt due to the fact those aren't strong bastions of evangelicalism and religious conservatism. It's hard to tell at this point which way those states will go.
I doubt that. Trump really isn't that popular outside of the Bible Belt.
Trump will possibly win the electoral college and lose the popular vote, just like last time. It's going to be hard for him to hang onto the Rust Belt due to the fact those aren't strong bastions of evangelicalism and religious conservatism. It's hard to tell at this point which way those states will go.
I think he will easily hang onto the rust belt. It isn't just religious conservatives that support him and there are some conservatives that do not.
The millenials are now officially the largest voting bloc. They could change this country if they would get out and vote.
Definitely.
The question is: will they have candidates that inspire them to get out and vote?
Personally, I worry that next year will not be the year at the national level.
In any event, some interesting 2018 demographic analysis here:
“2018 was also the first time that members of Generation Z, who were born after 1996, was of age to vote in a midterm election. 30 percent of eligible voters between 18 to 21 cast 4.5 million votes.
This generation is just reaching the legal voting age — members only accounted for about 4 percent of the votes in 2018 — which is why their impact will likely be more significant during the 2020 presidential election, when they’ll make up about 10 percent of all eligible voters.”
The question is: will they have candidates that inspire them to get out and vote?
Personally, I worry that next year will not be the year at the national level.
In any event, some interesting 2018 demographic analysis here:
“2018 was also the first time that members of Generation Z, who were born after 1996, was of age to vote in a midterm election. 30 percent of eligible voters between 18 to 21 cast 4.5 million votes.
This generation is just reaching the legal voting age — members only accounted for about 4 percent of the votes in 2018 — which is why their impact will likely be more significant during the 2020 presidential election, when they’ll make up about 10 percent of all eligible voters.”
As been mentioned higher turnout typically helps Democrats. In addition Trump's approvals being where they are helps Democrats if turnout is high. Trump's approvals have been very steady for the last couple years, unless that changes he goes in to 2020 with underwater approvals. When turnout is high neither side is likely to have a turnout advantage, in which the underwater approvals will likely play a decent factor. In a low turnout election you might be able to get away with the underwater approvals if your side has the turnout advantage.
I think he will easily hang onto the rust belt. It isn't just religious conservatives that support him and there are some conservatives that do not.
Even with the economy decelerating due to his trade policies? As the unpleasant effects of his tariffs kick in, is he still going to be as popular in Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan/Ohio? Or are the voters there going to be mesmerized by his words and that is all that matters?
Even with the economy decelerating due to his trade policies? As the unpleasant effects of his tariffs kick in, is he still going to be as popular in Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan/Ohio? Or are the voters there going to be mesmerized by his words and that is all that matters?
I think Trump should carry Ohio unless the economy collapses. In the other three states, it won't take a lot of voters switching sides to flip those to the Democrat. The younger age cohorts entering the electorate also tend to be less supportive of the president than those in the oldest group who voted in 2016 but won't be around in 2020.
Regarding the original question, record turnout means that the preferences of the voter eligible population as a whole are more likely to be reflected. The average of poll aggregations for months have suggested that a little over 40% approve of the president and a little over 50% disapprove, with the balance being undecided. There is no guaranteed outcome, but even with the electoral college and an imperfect Democratic nominee, those numbers are not promising for Trump.
I lost the list I wrote. I count 8 states and an electoral district now: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Delaware, and DC. That would be approximately 408-130, minus a few electors casting other votes.
I lost the list I wrote. I count 8 states and an electoral district now: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Delaware, and DC. That would be approximately 408-130, minus a few electors casting other votes.
Lol. MD? CT? NJ? CO? VA?
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