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I think he will easily hang onto the rust belt. It isn't just religious conservatives that support him and there are some conservatives that do not.
He will hang on to Ohio and Wisconsin.....I don't believe Ohio is a swing state anymore...I think it's more red than it's been in recent years. I PA and Michigan will lean blue.
I lost the list I wrote. I count 8 states and an electoral district now: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Delaware, and DC. That would be approximately 408-130, minus a few electors casting other votes.
Considering there are about 20 states that are solid blue, I dont find that very realistic. And this is coming from an independent who believes Trump is going to win in 2020.
Not to mention he narrowly won PA and Michigan by about 40k votes, and 9k votes and Wisconsin by about 15k votes.
Not to mention....there is also too much of a divide in this Country for Trump to pull off a victory like that. We were also way more united under Ronald Reagan in 1984 and had a rock solid 58-60% job approval rating heading into the '84 election.
I lost the list I wrote. I count 8 states and an electoral district now: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Delaware, and DC. That would be approximately 408-130, minus a few electors casting other votes.
That would have Trump carrying Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Virginia.
Trump’s approval rating is below water in every state Clinton carried in 2016.
Here’s his net approval in the latest Morning Consult polls in some of those states.
Colorado -13%
Connecticut -23%
Delaware -15%
Maine -15%
Maryland -30%
Massachusetts-28%
New Hampshire -19%
New Jersey -17%
New Mexico -12%
Rhode Island -22%
Virginia -6%
Considering there are about 20 states that are solid blue, I dont find that very realistic. And this is coming from an independent who believes Trump is going to win in 2020.
Not to mention he narrowly won PA and Michigan by about 40k votes, and 9k votes and Wisconsin by about 15k votes.
Not to mention....there is also too much of a divide in this Country for Trump to pull off a victory like that. We were also way more united under Ronald Reagan in 1984 and had a rock solid 58-60% job approval rating heading into the '84 election.
As someone who voted for the first time in 1984, my impressions were that Walter Mondale was not very smart. What kind of politician tells his fellow Americans in a national debate that they can expect a tax increase from him?!! We had just pulled out of a deep recession, so a lot of the country felt positive. There was a lot of talk about Dems being beholden to “special interests”- those pesky minorities, unions and gay voters. A lot of the wealthier kids at my University were planning trips to Europe and felt really happy since there was near parity between the Dollar and the British pound- unheard of. Lee Iacocca of Chrysler summed it up very nicely by saying “The Pride is back” after Chrysler returned after experiencing near financial ruin. You couldn’t get away from MTV and everyone else playing Springsteen’s Born in the USA- many felt patriotic about the USA. Mondale ended up carrying his home state of Minnesota and DC- massive blowout.
Last edited by Hopeful for Life; 06-02-2019 at 02:53 PM..
I lost the list I wrote. I count 8 states and an electoral district now: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Delaware, and DC. That would be approximately 408-130, minus a few electors casting other votes.
I'd have a hard time imagining New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland and Connecticut turning red. Highly doubt it. As you suggest, Maine may split again. I am skeptical that Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico would go Republican. I think it's unlikely Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania all vote Republican again in 2020.
New Hampshire is a toss up, as is Nevada. Minnesota is close but I think goes more blue than 2016.
Well The most amazing aspect of Trump is that he has moved people to take notice and to become involved in politics. I believe that we will see record turnout in 2020 and considering how the Left and their mass media has been demonizing Trump since day one I suspect a close race with the Dems winning and Lord Help us after that.
I don't think so. The House gains were not that great.
The Dem house gains were huge- my district went R for the first time in 40 years.
But in truth the bigger measuring stick is statewide offices since so many house seats are tilted toward one party or the other. Wi, Pa, and Mi all went Dem at the state level and Dems romped in Minnesota. Ds also carried Supreme Court seats in NC- their only statewide race- and were close to winning the overall vote across all US House races when they hadn't even contested one of the races. Arizona elected their first D to the US Senate since the first Bush era. And Nevada went D at the state level, reversing R gains from 2014. Georgia Ds came within 2 points of the Rs in the first ballot on statewide races- that was a huge shift. As always, Florida was won by a whisker (this time by Rs).
If the Dem Presidential candidate merely matches the performance of the 2018 top of tick Dems, they will retake those Rustbelt states and probably flip an another two additional states.
Of course this is all dependent on the actual candidates on the ballot in Nov 2020. But a 2018 performance would be sufficient for a Democratic win.
Also wanted to note- in terms of turn out alone- Dems need large number of younger voters because those voters have shown they are willing to both split tickets and vote third party. A candidate like Biden who is getting criticized for attracting more older and whiter voters will also create a problem for Trump since losing even a fraction of those voters will take away his lead and the three closest states from 2016.
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