If We Have Record Turnout In 2020 Who Does It Help?

[Beach Sportsfan]

A large turn out favors the Democrats for sure. Trump will have to win the Wisconsin- Michigan- Pennsylvania trifecta to win again.

[Minethatbird]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

The Dem house gains were huge- my district went R for the first time in 40 years.

If my numbers are correct, Democrats gained 33 seats to get control of the House. They failed to obtain control of the Senate, gaining only one seat.

Democrats lost 63 House seats under BO in 2010, along with 6 seats in the Senate. Guess who won re-election in 2012?

[Vector1]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

Assuming we do have a tsunami of a turnout, how do you see it playing out?

Which ever side get their voters to turn out to vote the most will win.

/Thread

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by Minethatbird

If my numbers are correct, Democrats gained 33 seats to get control of the House. They failed to obtain control of the Senate, gaining only one seat.

Democrats lost 63 House seats under BO in 2010, along with 6 seats in the Senate. Guess who won re-election in 2012?

You’re conflating 2 different points. In terms of raw votes the Democratic turnout was huge, but Democratic voters are clustered into relatively few Congressional districts which limited their seat gain. Republican voter distribution is more efficient even though there are fewer Republicans than Democrats. In the 2020 Presidential race, the key will be not the totals by district, or the national popular vote, but the totals by state, specifically Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and Florida. I would still bet on Wisconsin as the tipping point.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/67...30KZVNQPQYBRYV

[Minethatbird]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

You’re conflating 2 different points. In terms of raw votes the Democratic turnout was huge, but Democratic voters are clustered into relatively few Congressional districts which limited their seat gain. Republican voter distribution is more efficient even though there are fewer Republicans than Democrats. In the 2020 Presidential race, the key will be not the totals by district, or the national popular vote, but the totals by state, specifically Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and Florida. I would still bet on Wisconsin as the tipping point.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/67...30KZVNQPQYBRYV

The poster I responded to was predicting a Democratic Tsunami based on election results in 2018. I don't think the voter distribution will change much by next year, the gains of Democrats in 2018 were not as spectacular as some in past elections. I would not be predicting a tsunami at this time. Important to remember .... the election is a year away, much can happen in a year.

[ming01]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

In 2018 we had the highest percentage of voting in a mid-term election in 100 years.

Interest in the 2020 election is already at a level usually seen in the month of the eelction, and we’re still a year and a half out.

Assuming we do have a tsunami of a turnout, how do you see it playing out?

https://www.axios.com/2020-president...387416119.html

Whomever the Independents and non partisan voters pull for.