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Actually- polls were accurate. Too many people ignored margin of error- all the states Hillary lost (except Wi) were either Trump leads or a HRC lead within the margin of error. A lead within the margin should be considered a tie. She performed within MOE by winning the popular vote by 2% as well.
The significance of two of those polls would be exceeding MOE. But in truth they don't matter for an entirely different reason- we're still 17 months from the election and its too early to have a good assessment.
Polls were "accurate" if you factor in margin of error as you write. But when the margin fell almost exclusively in one direction (i.e. in Trump's favor), the polling modeling/sampling could have been far better.
NC has been controlled by the democrats for 100 years
Much more Democrat voters than republican
NC has a high black population
NC has a high poverty rate
NC has some of the worst roads
NC also has one of the highest Teen Pregnancy rates
remember Edwards was a NC Senator and POTUS Candidate
so while NC might flip back and forth for POTUS (does NOT make it a swing state) it has and will always be a democrat debacle
This post would be more relevant and accurate a decade ago than today. The dominant political force in North Carolina is the Republican legislature, although they do have a Democratic governor. John Edwards is long gone from public office.
The state's poverty rate is only marginally higher than national averages and the roads are no worse than anywhere else in the country. Probably better than many states since the winter climate is more moderate.
As far as 2020 goes, North Carolina is a must-win for Trump, and a bonus for the Democratic nominee since they are more likely to pick up the Rust Belt states and Arizona in addition to the 20 states carried by Clinton. I would guess the best case scenario for Democrats involves carrying the state by 2-3%, while the best case for Trump would be a 5-6% victory margin.
All the kings horses and all the kings men said Hillary was going to win NC. We endured 2 straight months of Hillary adverts on the teevee. Yet. When She or Bill showed up for a rally, nobody was there. Meanwhile Trump was filling every place he went in NC beyond capacity. It speaks for itself.
Creepy Joe Biden is toast. He won't even be a contest in NC for him.
This post would be more relevant and accurate a decade ago than today. The dominant political force in North Carolina is the Republican legislature, although they do have a Democratic governor. John Edwards is long gone from public office.
The state's poverty rate is only marginally higher than national averages and the roads are no worse than anywhere else in the country. Probably better than many states since the winter climate is more moderate.
As far as 2020 goes, North Carolina is a must-win for Trump, and a bonus for the Democratic nominee since they are more likely to pick up the Rust Belt states and Arizona in addition to the 20 states carried by Clinton. I would guess the best case scenario for Democrats involves carrying the state by 2-3%, while the best case for Trump would be a 5-6% victory margin.
Exactly the Democrats do NOT need NC to win, Trump does so any tough sledding in the TarHeel State is bad news for the Trump camp.
Exactly the Democrats do NOT need NC to win, Trump does so any tough sledding in the TarHeel State is bad news for the Trump camp.
If I were you, I'd be wondering which of the announced walking cadavers and crazed loons might do better than Hillary. It's not looking good for the Democrats at all.
If I were you, I'd be wondering which of the announced walking cadavers and crazed loons might do better than Hillary. It's not looking good for the Democrats at all.
I know you want to believe that but there are two things going on 2020 that are different from 2016
1. No matter how you spin it whoever is the Democrat nominee will do better than Hillary which was toxic for many. None of the 2020 main candidates have the high dislike factor that Hillary brought. Which is why you and the rest want to constantly bring her up.
2. Trump now has a record and while the economy is doing well, he has also alienated a large number of Americans which is why even with the economy doing well he still has low support and a high dislike factor. If the Tariff man creates a recession it would be even a tougher road.
So keep on believing that it’s a shoe in for the Trumper to get reelected.
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