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Trump is going to bury Creepy Joe. Biden is the 2020 version of Walter Mondale 1984, assuming Biden gets the nomination.
In this polarized political environment, if you think either side is going to win a 49-1 rout, you’ve lost your damned mind. Either side could run a stuffed chimp in a suit and pick up 200 electoral votes.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-04-2019 at 10:28 AM..
In this polarized political environment, if you think either side is going to win a 49-1 rout, you’ve lost your damned mind. Either side could run a stuffed chimp and pick up 200 electoral votes.
One side already did, and his name is Donald Trump.
I cannot see this lead holding. I also do not believe NC is +10 Dem in any statewide race. +5 would be more believable but I think the R will net a minimum of 46% in any statewide race. But I think getting to 50% is huge. Where Hillary died on the vine was having leads that were maxing out at 47-48%. That left room for late deciders and a vote surge to puch Trump to plenty of 48-49% wins in states.
In the end I think NC will end up being 3 pts more R/less D than Pennsylvania. So if Biden goes +5 in Pa I think he wins NC.
If polls meant anything, hillary would be president!
Actually- polls were accurate. Too many people ignored margin of error- all the states Hillary lost (except Wi) were either Trump leads or a HRC lead within the margin of error. A lead within the margin should be considered a tie. She performed within MOE by winning the popular vote by 2% as well.
The significance of two of those polls would be exceeding MOE. But in truth they don't matter for an entirely different reason- we're still 17 months from the election and its too early to have a good assessment.
North Carolina has voted for a Democratic POTUS candidate 1 time (2008) in the last 10 elections.
I don’t believe this poll, but if Donald Trump loses NC, he’s toast, because it would likely mean he’s also losing states that are more competitive.
Exactly. If NC is in play for 2020 that’s not good news for Trump. I don’t think the Dems will take it in 2020
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