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He compared Biden’s campaign to an overloaded 747. You wonder whether it will get off the ground, but if it does, it has strong potential to go all the way. If his campaign blows up, it’s likely to be early, within 90 days of launch. It’s already been 43 days of launch with no problems.
2. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren
One has to take out the other fairly early to have a chance for the nomination.
3. Kamala Harris
Will pick up a lot of delegates from California and about 1 out of 4 delegates will be black. Just as Sanders and Warren fight for a spot in the true progressive lane, she’ll fight Booker for black votes.
4. Pete Buttigieg
You wouldn’t normally think that a 37 year old mayor of a small city would have a shot, but he is a wild card.
I think right now Final Four look like
Biden
Warren has moved up as the Left Progressive
Harris will pick up more attention as debates go on
Sanders or Buttigieg. Each is filling a different niche but right now Biden and Warren are beating them for their group.
I think Sanders is slipping and he knows it. Buttigieg and Harris need more slippage from Biden.
I could have made the same predictions.
Biden's tendency to start fast and hard and then fade half-way through is very well known.
If Sanders was more electable, he would have stolen 2016 from Clinton.
If the Democrats really want to run another woman for the second time in a row, one of the current ladies would now be at the head of the pack.
Same goes for another centrist black guy.
If O'Roarke could best Buttigieg, Beto wouldn't be doing a re-start right now.
I'm pretty sure that by this time next year, there will be an "Elite 8", but I seriously doubt about half those folks on Charlie's list will be in it. I'll give him an Elite 4 at the most.
What I tend to expect is to see one of the unknowns who are now only pulling 2% to figure out the right combination to the puzzle and come a'roaring.
June, 2019 is looking exactly like June, 2015 to me. There was a lot of chum in the water in 2015, and a lot of sharks circling the chum then too, except the sharks were all Republicans. Same chum, different sharks now.
Chum is chum. It's the lure, not the bait. It only says "here's where the good stuff is."
The sharks will always come every election, but none of us know if the biggest fish, the voters, will bite the bait or not just yet.
Last edited by banjomike; 06-13-2019 at 12:28 AM..
I'm praying for a Warren nomination. Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren will be deliciously easy to defeat
Don't be getting down on your prayer bones too soon. It's much better for you and your guy to start thinking 2020 will be a tougher year for Trump than 2016 was and begin preparing for it.
Don't be getting down on your prayer bones too soon. It's much better for you and your guy to start thinking 2020 will be a tougher year for Trump than 2016 was and begin preparing for it.
I think 2020 will be easier for Trump than 2016 was, but he has to plan for the race as if hes the underdog still. Just like I pray for a Warren nomination in 2020, I prayed for a Hillary nomination in 2016, especially after it was clear Trump would win the GOP nomination. I strongly believed that Hillary was the easiest Dem to defeat for Trump. I feel similarly about Warren.
I think 2020 will be easier for Trump than 2016 was, but he has to plan for the race as if hes the underdog still. Just like I pray for a Warren nomination in 2020, I prayed for a Hillary nomination in 2016, especially after it was clear Trump would win the GOP nomination. I strongly believed that Hillary was the easiest Dem to defeat for Trump. I feel similarly about Warren.
Yup. I agree with your thoughts about Warren. And your thoughts about Hillary too.
One month later and three of his “Elite Eight”: Booker, Klobuchar, O’Rourke are looking weak. Klobuchar is already out of the top 8 by poll averages and Booker and O'Rourke are in 6th and 7th and fading. Gabbard is 8th, Castro 9th and both on the rise, at the moment.
For the final four it is looking like Sanders and Warren and Buttigieg probably outside it. Might go as he suggests but not there yet.
I think Trump can beat all of them. When people hear Biden speak, he will be out. He is loopy. I don't actually think he will get the nomination. The rest of them are so far to the left, people will not put them in office.
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