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Sanders and Warren are a close 2nd to Biden in the polls, and both would easily beat Trump in the obvious places: the west coast, most of the northeast, CO, NV, and NM, much of the Upper Midwest, and probably a few surprise states as well. Can these candidates actually win a Southern state though besides maybe North Carolina and Virginia?
I think Virginia is now safely Dem but North Carolina is a toss up that leans moderate. To win in NC the Dem would have to make a play for business friendly, socially libertarian voters in the Raleigh and Charlotte metros as well as amp up votes among African Americans. I think Florida presents an interesting conundrum- not only do its demographics change more than other state (especially actually gaining older residents instead of losing them to death), but the Hispanic population is incredibly diverse. Someone who goes far left will lose among too many of the Hispanic communities.
I do not think a someone too liberal wins Georgia. Stacy Abrams ran in a D wave year and ramped up AA participation but came up short. I think the hard right bent of the current GOP is putting them in a dicey position in Georgia but you still need a Dem who can take more of the middle. The alternative will be 2016 redux- Trump only having approbal in the upper thirties but getting to 46% of the vote because folks did not like the alternative.
ETA- I am also not completely sold on someone too far left being able to win Wisconsin or Pa. While Republicans have the luxury of about 20 states that will go R regardless, Dems still have to field an acceptable candidate to move through. Minnesota, Maine and NH were much tighter than anyone expected in 2016. Nevada was also not a runaway.
North Carolina - Maybe, if the candidate is right
South Carolina - Never
Georgia - Maybe, if the candidate is right
Florida - Yes
Alabama - Never
Mississippi - Never
Tennessee - Never
Arkansas - Never
Louisiana - Never
Oklahoma - Never
Texas - Not yet but maybe in a few election cycles
North Carolina - Maybe, if the candidate is right
South Carolina - Never
Georgia - Maybe, if the candidate is right
Florida - Yes
Alabama - Never
Mississippi - Never
Tennessee - Never
Arkansas - Never
Louisiana - Never
Oklahoma - Never
Texas - Not yet but maybe in a few election cycles
^^^This. The Republican candidate could be Satan himself and the south would still vote for him.
Sanders and Warren are a close 2nd to Biden in the polls, and both would easily beat Trump in the obvious places: the west coast, most of the northeast, CO, NV, and NM, much of the Upper Midwest, and probably a few surprise states as well. Can these candidates actually win a Southern state though besides maybe North Carolina and Virginia?
North Carolina - Maybe, if the candidate is right
South Carolina - Never
Georgia - Maybe, if the candidate is right
Florida - Yes
Alabama - Never
Mississippi - Never
Tennessee - Never
Arkansas - Never
Louisiana - Never
Oklahoma - Never
Texas - Not yet but maybe in a few election cycles
Yeah it's pretty much ONLY about abortion, gay marriage, religion, and guns in this part of the country. Absolutely nothing else matters.
Is it really that bad in the south? I’ve been to Texas once, and Florida once, and that’s about it for my adventures in the southern states. They were both big cities though and don’t really represent the whole state as far as political views.
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