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Status:
"Moldy Tater Gangrene, even before Moscow Marge."
(set 1 day ago)
Location: Dallas, TX
5,790 posts, read 3,599,037 times
Reputation: 5697
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A plain and simple "Yes", according to my calculations at 270towin.com.
In fact, Dems simply have to either keep all the states they had in 2016, and either
*add FL and WI, or
*add FL plus any other state with more EVs than WI's 10 (AZ and NC look especially ripe for the taking. A Dem won the AZ senate seat and NC went for Obama in 08, with an incumbent not nearly as controversial as Trump)
*Simply retake WI, MI, and PA. Even if they lose NV and FL, the Dems win the White House.
Trump blows hot, but 2020 could leave him in the cold.
President Donald Trump continues to get bad news about Michigan, which he won by a scant 10,704 votes, only 0.2% of those cast in the state, in 2016. According to a new Glengariff poll for The Detroit News, the majority of Michiganders would vote for any Democrat over Trump were the election held today, regardless of whether the Democratic nominee is raging centrist or a proud socialist. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders each got 53% of the vote in a hypothetical matchup, while Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris each won 47% against Trump’s anemic 41, 43, and 44%, respectively. Hammering home the point that Michigan voters just don’t like Trump, period: only 36% of respondents said they would vote to reelect the president.
What's more, Trump can’t count on the same voter apathy that doomed Hillary Clinton in the Wolverine State. While roughly 75,000 voters who cast ballots that year didn’t vote for a presidential candidate in 2016, last year’s midterms saw record Democratic turnout. Michigan Democrats flipped two House seats, defended a Senate seat, and won the governorship, all by comfortable margins. And with Trump on the ballot, turnout is predicted to be even higher in 2020.
Given similar polling in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the two other “blue wall” states that narrowly went for Trump in 2016, it’s no wonder the president’s reelection campaign is scouting fertile ground elsewhere
Florida will stay GOP, as every day more white seniors arrive who DO vote than any other demographic arriving in terms of voting population..
As for Rust Belt, Trump was down in Pa, Mi, Wi election day 2016 and Dems have done nothing to erase damage of hating wwc and using scandalous "deplorables" term.
All Trump needs is any one of Wi, Mi, or pa. In addition, in 2020, Trump takes Minnesota, which was ultra close in 2016.
A plain and simple "Yes", according to my calculations at 270towin.com.
In fact, Dems simply have to either keep all the states they had in 2016, and either
*add FL and WI, or
*add FL plus any other state with more EVs than WI's 10 (AZ and NC look especially ripe for the taking. A Dem won the AZ senate seat and NC went for Obama in 08, with an incumbent not nearly as controversial as Trump)
*Simply retake WI, MI, and PA. Even if they lose NV and FL, the Dems win the White House.
Trump blows hot, but 2020 could leave him in the cold.
Polling is fairly irrelevant at this point. Obviously, Trump is very unpopular and has only limited ability to improve. But, to some extent the opposition to him is baked in. He doesn't have to become popular, he just has to ensure the democratic candidate is just as unpopular.
I expect the polls will tighten after several months of negative messaging painting the dem nominee as an "open borders" socialist. So far the dem candidates seem to be helping to reinforce that narrative.
As an anti-Trump Obama to Clinton voter, it pains me to say this. But, Trumps reelection is looking increasingly possible.
A plain and simple "Yes", according to my calculations at 270towin.com.
In fact, Dems simply have to either keep all the states they had in 2016, and either
*add FL and WI, or
*add FL plus any other state with more EVs than WI's 10 (AZ and NC look especially ripe for the taking. A Dem won the AZ senate seat and NC went for Obama in 08, with an incumbent not nearly as controversial as Trump)
*Simply retake WI, MI, and PA. Even if they lose NV and FL, the Dems win the White House.
Trump blows hot, but 2020 could leave him in the cold.
the liberals doomed themselves at the recent debates when they showed they want open borders (that illegals who cross into the US illegally, should not e charged NOR deported) AND when they said illegals should get free medical..... nearly everyone on the stage raised their hands and showed their treasonous ways...… the liberals are doomed...no way they even take Minnesota
Polling is fairly irrelevant at this point. Obviously, Trump is very unpopular and has only limited ability to improve. But, to some extent the opposition to him is baked in. He doesn't have to become popular, he just has to ensure the democratic candidate is just as unpopular.
I expect the polls will tighten after several months of negative messaging painting the dem nominee as an "open borders" socialist. So far the dem candidates seem to be helping to reinforce that narrative.
As an anti-Trump Obama to Clinton voter, it pains me to say this. But, Trumps reelection is looking increasingly possible.
He is a terrible leader, but the Democrats have no viable candidate that can beat him..
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