Prediction time. Who's gonna win in 2020? (July 2019)

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by Sharks With Lasers

It really comes down to Pennsylvania and Michigan. My guess is that the other states stay the same as in 2016.

I think it’s more likely Wisconsin. If Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania but holds Wisconsin and all else he carried in 2016, he’s re-elected. Whether he can do that remains to be seen.

[BobNJ1960]

Trump could win Minnesota, which was ultra tight in 2016. Omar has an astronomical disapproval rating which could help the anti DNC Mn turnout.

Trump should have no problem winning Pa. That wwc that drove him home-DNC has done squat to court in 2.5 years. Its not gonna be much, if any different, in % of total votes 2016-2020. Western Pa is hardly a demographically fast-changing region.

https://theminnesotasun.com/2019/07/...-state-voters/

[njforlife92]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

Florida is gone and Georgia has no shot. Believe me. I live there and can tell you the state is a long way from going red in a presidential election. I wouldn’t disagree with you on any of the others in the right scenario. Florida Trump simply has too much Venezuelan and Cuban support. Now I might agree that with a more moderate candidate like Biden that vote might not go as heavily for Trump as it would with someone who is more on the socialist spectrum but I’m still not sure it’s enough. Florida seems to be trending redder the last few years

Trump got 50% in Georgia, compared to 53% for Romney, 52% for McCain, and 57% for Bush in 2004. On top of that, Brian Kemp only won by 2%. Trump won Georgia by 5% against a weak opponent. Biden is much more likable and in touch with voters than Hillary and doesn't have her baggage.

Many of the Venezuelan and Cuban immigrants and children of immigrants live in Miami-Dade County, FL. On election day 2016, Donald Trump did worse there than Mitt Romney. Also, while Trump got 33% of the vote there, Marco Rubio won 43%. Rick Scott got 39% there in 2018. Even if you believe that Trump will do better with Cuban and Venezuelan immigrants compared with 2016, I think his support with college educated and suburban voters there will be less than 2016.

As far as Florida trending redder, I don't think the state has actually changed all that much politically in recent years. At the state level, Republicans have won U.S. Senate races and gubernatorial races. Bill Nelson managed to win because he either had weak opponents (see 2006) or ran in a good year for Democrats (see 2012). The state has been purple for some time at the presidential level.

I think Biden appeals to white working-class voters in rural communities in northern Florida, college educated and suburban voters who live outside of Miami and Orlando, and independent voters.

Now, I would probably agree with you if the nominee is a socialist.

Originally Posted by juneaubound

Re: Biden (and some of the other potential candidates)
https://video.foxnews.com/v/60612440...#sp=show-clips

Warren Vs Trump.

Trump for the win.

Tucker Carlson? Really? This just gives me more confidence that I am going to be proven right.