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I think it is more likely that not that no one gets enough delegates to win on first ballot. I have a hard time seeing any candidate consistently winning over 30% of the vote on Super Tuesday. There will be winners but probably several winners and not big margins. Unless several of the top 5-7 bow out immediately after Super Tuesday, I see the remaining delegates also being divided more than 2 ways. A decent to larger share of Biden's support could go to Bloomberg and perhaps Patrick. The South could pick the winner but I don't see an obvious / sure pick. Maybe it could have been Patrick if he had gotten in 3-6 months earlier. If he gets wins in South, it will pretty much be a gift.
If a winner emerges it could be slow and perhaps aided by freak delegate divisions (multiple candidates repeatedly just missing 15% thresholds) and then running out of money.
Bloomberg says he is going to spend over $100 million. If he is serious and really fights and has enough response to justify it, that might go to $500 million. Right now he does not seem that likely to win but no one else seems to have a really strong likelihood either to win first ballot, imo. There is likely to be 3, 4, 5 candidates with sizeable delegate counts and then small clusters elsewhere.
Maybe things break one way big. But I doubt it right now.
We'll just have to see how things look in 3.5 months, 6 months. I think it is more likely than it has been in most or all of the contests of the last 40 years.
2008 was tight but a 2 person race. 1992 started out wide open but Bill Clinton's personality settled things. I don't see a big personality based tidal wave coming. The media, criticized as too powerful and manipulative, may not be as able to engineer the decision as much as it used to. It may still be strong enough to decide a few who don't win but maybe not the winner.
The first thing that needs to be done is to get the debates down to a manageable number of candidates. How many Republican candidates were in the running a year beforehand last time around?
The first thing that needs to be done is to get the debates down to a manageable number of candidates. How many Republican candidates were in the running a year beforehand last time around?
Since we haven’t had anything remotely resembling a brokered convention since 1952, I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Back then, there were only a handful of primaries and political bosses had almost all of the power. With primaries someone almost inadvertently breaks out of the pack in the spring and takes control.
Does Buttigieg hang on to recent Iowa lead? To be quick about it I'll say 50-50. Sanders probably has 2nd best chance. In NH, Sanders is fairly likely. Buttigieg probably second. I tend to think Warren has peaked and won't rally. Biden may finish 4th in both places. How bad it looks will matter. He may or may not get to Super Tuesday. If he has close 4ths or 3rds in Iowa and NH and wins SC and NV, he stays in. If he goes 0 for 4 it is over for him. If Sanders wins 2 or 3 of first 4 the stop Sanders campaign will go full force. Buttigieg wins one, eh. 2 that will mean more. But right now hard to see him doing well in South heavy Super Tuesday. 15%s would probably be good showings for him there to stay in the hunt. I expect Bloomberg will get to double digits in some places. Wins? I dunno. Patrick? Hardest to guess about. Media and Obama could make him a factor. More likely a factor than a winner and more likely not much of a factor over a big factor but hard to say.
In general, no one over 30% of vote on average, good chance to fall short of 1st ballot victory. 35% by Super Tuesday? Then they are more likely than not to get 50% of delegates. 30% on average but some luck with opponents falling short of 15% maybe you can get to enough delegates on first ballot. If Warren exited before Super Tuesday then a brokered convention becomes less likely. I don't see Sanders or Buttigieg exiting period but I guess it is possible.
Last edited by NW Crow; 11-27-2019 at 11:13 PM..
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