Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
Trump is a special kind of Republican. Indeed, it was basically a tied district in 2012, though to be fair the district boundaries changed in 2013, so talk of how the GOP has historically performed prior to 2013 isn't all that helpful without knowing more about how the boundaries shifted. Still, the narrative is that Trump voters are souring on him and taking their anger out on Republicans. That's why this double digit victory is news.
The fact that Sean Duffy won it even more comfortably doesn't necessarily mean much as he was an incumbent. This was an open seat in a year where the narrative is that the GOP is in trouble.
All of this is to say that I don't think anyone expected the Dem to win. But I think Dems would have been happy if the margins were closer than they were.
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I really don't think you can make much about this district either way. If Trump +20 districts turn into Trump +14 he is in a ton of trouble in a state he lost by less than 1 point. Not that I'm trying to argue that a special election trending 6 points in indicative on anything else, but multiple things could be argued.
Bottom line is yes, the GOP won comfortably in a district they should have won comfortably in. This was Trump's best district in the state in 2016.