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CNN has always done accurate polling.
They go into high schools and poll what Adults think of Trump, and then they report the perfectly accurate results.
For that matter, all polls are accurate. But the only poll that really counts is the poll of likely voters. And that poll showed a support for Trump of 49%.
Thx for this! This is the first "likely voters" poll I've seen. If Trump gets 49% of the popular vote, he'll be re-elected by the Electoral College.
Remember, moderate Dems & Independents (who will decide the outcome) have NOT seen Joe Biden in 2 months. When they see him trying to formulate complex sentences, or debate Trump...
At some point Joe will need to come out of the basement, take hard questions, face criticism, & debate, all in real time.
Joe is at his highest ratings right now, but as soon as he starts speaking (not reading)...down goes Joe.
The Mods and Indy's may not vote for Trump, but some will not be able to vote against Trump, and for a candidate in Joe's condition. They'll feel that to be un-American and Un-patriotic.
Thx for this! This is the first "likely voters" poll I've seen. If Trump gets 49% of the popular vote, he'll be re-elected by the Electoral College.
Remember, moderate Dems & Independents (who will decide the outcome) have NOT seen Joe Biden in 2 months. When they see him trying to formulate complex sentences, or debate Trump...
At some point Joe will need to come out of the basement, take hard questions, face criticism, & debate, all in real time.
Joe is at his highest ratings right now, but as soon as he starts speaking (not reading)...down goes Joe.
The Mods and Indy's may not vote for Trump, but some will not be able to vote against Trump, and for a candidate in Joe's condition. They'll feel that to be un-American and Un-patriotic.
Independent here. They can roll Biden out on a gurney in a coma and he'll get my vote. See you in November.
Just wait until we see reopening didn't actually help the economy and still we have 8% unemployment in November with 150-200K dead. I think the White House lawn is a good place for the bodybags. His fault right?
This is a poll of REGISTERED voters, not LIKELY voters...Why?
Because the NYT's warns that Biden has a pathetic 28% voter enthusiasm rating, while Trump's is 55%
If a registered voter poll has Biden up by 6 points, but Biden gets only a 28% turnout, it's Trump in a landslide.
Trump's not capable of winning in a landslide. His only path to victory is narrowly winning in a handful of swing states while likely being crushed by an ever increasing margin in the popular vote. That’s the cost of chasing after a dwindling number of white non-college voters while simultaneously alienating growing numbers of white college graduates and minorities. It’s a fool’s errand over the long term.
It's as predictable as the sun rising in the morning. Trumpies cherry-pick whatever poll they want to believe, when they want to believe it.
Last week it was "but the betting markets say Trump is going to win!" Those same betting markets that had Clinton at better than 3 to 1 odds to win in 2016 just a few days out of the Election.
This derangement isn't new. It has been going on since June 2015.
Trump's not capable of winning in a landslide. His only path to victory is narrowly winning in a handful of swing states while likely being crushed by an ever increasing margin in the popular vote. That’s the cost of chasing after a dwindling number of white non-college voters while simultaneously alienating growing numbers of white college graduates and minorities. It’s a fool’s errand over the long term.
I agree, Trump can't win in a landslide. But he can win. You don't need 400 EV to be president. Just 270. He has many paths to 270. It boils down to how red those midwestern states really are. If 2016 was a fluke for those states, he's sunk. He has zero paths to victory without at least one of WI, MI and PA. Whereas if Biden did win FL and NC, Trump needs to sweep those 3 states plus AZ. While Trump did do exactly that in 2016, it is like flipping a coin 4 times and wishing for heads all 4 times in order to win.
May 14: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 728 LV - Biden +9
May 11: Redfield & Wilton Strategies - 1,500 LV - Biden +8
May 7: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 758 LV - Biden +7
May 6: Change Research - 1,489 LV - Biden +3
May 4: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 765 LV - Biden +4
May 3: YouGov - 1,671 LV - Biden +6
----------------------------------------------------
Average for May: Biden +6.16%
Since the beginning of this month, there is not a single nationwide poll of likely voters that shows Trump ahead. And in the results so far, Biden has generally been extending his lead as the month has progressed.
May 14: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 728 LV - Biden +9
May 11: Redfield & Wilton Strategies - 1,500 LV - Biden +8
May 7: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 758 LV - Biden +7
May 6: Change Research - 1,489 LV - Biden +3
May 4: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 765 LV - Biden +4
May 3: YouGov - 1,671 LV - Biden +6
----------------------------------------------------
Average for May: Biden +6.16%
Since the beginning of this month, there is not a single nationwide poll of likely voters that shows Trump ahead. And in the results so far, Biden has generally been extending his lead as the month has progressed.
As more people die from the virus, Biden's numbers will increase. And as the virus moves into the center of the country, the "red" states, Trump's numbers will also drop. That's why he's so eager to lay blame on something, anything, but himself.
Just to temper this a little bit. Those are national polls. Presidents are elected by states.
But with that said, I don't see how Trump can win if he really was 6 points back nationally. Trump lost by 2.1 points nationally and squeaked out wins in PA, MI and WI. If this was 2016 and we had similar turnout, we'd be looking at Trump losing by about 8.3M votes as opposed to losing by the 2.8M he lost in the popular vote in 2016.
That would be about 5.5M less votes for Trump lost by the results of that national poll. Where do you take away 5.5M votes from Trump and NOT lose states like WI, MI, PA and NC and FL?
Consider the following:
Those 5 states are worth 90 Electoral Votes. Trump won those 5 states combined 13.6M to 13.3M. How exactly does he maintain that 300k vote total if he is losing nationally by 5.5M voters? No idea. He likely doesn't get those 90 Electoral votes and likely does not win reelection in November.
Didn't you learn enough about polls from the last election? Or are you simply a glutton for punishment?
538 does a pretty good job with this stuff. Their last election prediction in 2016 was Hillary over Trump 71.4% to 28.6%. That's not 99%. That's not 95%. For Trump, that's BETTER than the odds of flipping a fair coin twice and getting heads both times.
Their method was probabilistic. I wouldn't just say "you can't listen to polls because they were wrong once." That's like saying the weather forecast said mostly sunny and it was mostly cloudy one time therefore the weather forecast is always wrong.
Last edited by dspguy; 05-18-2020 at 10:20 AM..
Reason: fixed spelling
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Trumpies cherry-pick whatever poll they want to believe, when they want to believe it.
