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Clinton had more paths to victory but she neglected those mid-western states. Trump won the 2016 election on 300,000 votes in his favor out of 27,000,000 votes cast in FL, NC, MI, WI, NC and earned all 90 of those Electoral Votes. That's a tiny margin of 1.1% in those states. A win is a win and the rest is history.
Whether you like CNN or not, there are many pollsters out there that have nothing to do with CNN. While I think it is too early to draw conclusions from polls for an event that is more than 5 months away, there is a consensus across polls in Biden's favor. Sure, maybe one poll here and there has Trump up by 1 and the rest of Biden up by 3,4 or 5.
If come October, the polls have Biden up by 6 or more nationally and up by 4 or more in most of those battleground states, I think it should be the end of hearing about how "wrong the polls are."
2016 proved the state polls are too unreliable (even the day before the election, let alone in May LMAO), for example Hillary led Wisconsin by 6.5 in November according to RealClearPolitics, and Trump won Wisconsin!
Hillary's RCP average lead in the national poll was 7.1 on October 18th, and I don't believe Biden will even be leading the national poll by October 18th, because right now he's completely protected in the basement and he's still only managing a 4.5 lead (and that was 6.3 on April 29th!), so I'd be surprised if Biden is even leading by July....
I think we should all have learned by now not to trust polls but what is shocking about this one is that CNN didn't bury it seeing that their guy came out on the bottom.
2016 proved the state polls are too unreliable (even the day before the election, let alone in May LMAO), for example Hillary led Wisconsin by 6.5 in November according to RealClearPolitics, and Trump won Wisconsin!
Hillary's RCP average lead in the national poll was 7.1 on October 18th, and I don't believe Biden will even be leading the national poll by October 18th, because right now he's completely protected in the basement and he's still only managing a 4.5 lead (and that was 6.3 on April 29th!), so I'd be surprised if Biden is even leading by July....
No, it doesn't prove state polls are unreliable. Most polls were close to the actual result. It is simply harder to forecast something that is a near 50/50 chance vs the chances of the Harlem Globetrotters defeating the Washington Genreals.
I provided a list earlier of 4 polls - not even cherry picked (well, the Wisconsin one was). Most polls are right - the actual result winds up with a vote margin within the margin of error. CA, FL and NH were just picked out of thin-air. I had to go out of the way to find one not within the margin of error.
Just because there's a few polls that are "wrong" doesn't mean the entire concept of polls are wrong.
If you got a bad cup of coffee at McDonald's would you never go there again? Well maybe :P But it doesn't mean every cup of coffee at McDonald's, Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts is bad. If they were ALL bad, those businesses wouldn't exist. And neither would polls.
May 14: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 728 LV - Biden +9
May 11: Redfield & Wilton Strategies - 1,500 LV - Biden +8
May 7: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 758 LV - Biden +7
May 6: Change Research - 1,489 LV - Biden +3
May 4: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 765 LV - Biden +4
May 3: YouGov - 1,671 LV - Biden +6
----------------------------------------------------
Average for May: Biden +6.16%
Since the beginning of this month, there is not a single nationwide poll of likely voters that shows Trump ahead. And in the results so far, Biden has generally been extending his lead as the month has progressed.
Anyway, a new one out today ...
May 18: Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus - 780 LV - Biden +10
No, it doesn't prove state polls are unreliable. Most polls were close to the actual result. It is simply harder to forecast something that is a near 50/50 chance vs the chances of the Harlem Globetrotters defeating the Washington Genreals.
I provided a list earlier of 4 polls - not even cherry picked (well, the Wisconsin one was). Most polls are right - the actual result winds up with a vote margin within the margin of error. CA, FL and NH were just picked out of thin-air. I had to go out of the way to find one not within the margin of error.
Just because there's a few polls that are "wrong" doesn't mean the entire concept of polls are wrong.
If you got a bad cup of coffee at McDonald's would you never go there again? Well maybe :P But it doesn't mean every cup of coffee at McDonald's, Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts is bad. If they were ALL bad, those businesses wouldn't exist. And neither would polls.
Not Starbucks is bad when they don't have a Christmas cup...
Any polls that don't support whomever is their preferred candidate is wrong. That is why I try to go with aggregate data than individual polls. For states that isn't as easy to do.
Not Starbucks is bad when they don't have a Christmas cup...
Any polls that don't support whomever is their preferred candidate is wrong. That is why I try to go with aggregate data than individual polls. For states that isn't as easy to do.
A site that does a great job with polls is 538. They examine the history of a particular pollster and the bias they have (this can be measured against actual election results). And as long as they continue polling using that methodology, they can have a reasonable idea of how biased that poll is.
The polls they generally ignore are candidates' internal polling. Those are generally a waste of time.
While I'm not down on RCP, I feel like they just average all the polls together - regardless of whether that pollster is historically accurate or whether they used 100 voters or 2000 voters.
Let me tell you: Democrats are done for 2020, not a chance. Battleground states aren't like deluded coastal big cities...people in them are seeing right through this non-epidemic flu BS now.
This poll was taken before Joe lied about not knowing about the Flynn railroad.
Now all Americans know Joe commited Treason, 7 was part of a Coup D'etat. That will cause a lot of moderate Dems & Independents to stay home.
Joe's enthusiasm rate was 28% BEFORE being involved in Treason....crimes against the state. What might it be now? 18%?
It will still be 28%. 28% of the people in this country would vote for Charles Manson if he were the Democrat nominee.
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