Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
No clue how accurate his prediction is always liked election nights I remember watching Ronald Reagan win election night. I remember Bill Clinton I knew he was going to win because of a rally he had by my college never seen so many people turn out for a Political rally jammed entire mile square with traffic around the stadium. Clinton wasn't that well known in California back in 1992. Going to a political rally would be the last thing on my list to do on a Friday night.
Models are fun. All models are wrong, but some are useful.
I don't know anything about the JHK model. I'm not sure if they provide their methodology. But if there's one thing I do like about their model, they claim right now that the chances of an upset are roughly the chances that an NBA player successfully lands a three-point shot. In 2016, the 538 model pegged Clinton at roughly a 3 in 4 shot. For perspective, that's the same odds as flipping a coin twice and getting heads twice. Not some astronomical odds.
I think it is going to be awfully close. But on election night, if Biden wins FL, Trump is done. And on the flip side, if Trump wins PA, Biden is done.
Models are fun. All models are wrong, but some are useful.
I don't know anything about the JHK model. I'm not sure if they provide their methodology. But if there's one thing I do like about their model, they claim right now that the chances of an upset are roughly the chances that an NBA player successfully lands a three-point shot. In 2016, the 538 model pegged Clinton at roughly a 3 in 4 shot. For perspective, that's the same odds as flipping a coin twice and getting heads twice. Not some astronomical odds.
I think it is going to be awfully close. But on election night, if Biden wins FL, Trump is done. And on the flip side, if Trump wins PA, Biden is done.
Trump has to win WI,MI,MN,PA, and Florida to take the election. Biden only has to win those 4 Midwest states and it's optional for him to win Florida. Trump going to have a tough election he has lot of challenges to overcome. If Biden wins 3 of those Midwest states and Florida he wins.
Trump's only strategy now will be to attack Biden there is no economy to talk about. Trump will run a campaign much like he did against Clinton. Biden can attack Trump the same way on corruption much like Trump did against Clinton. Overall Trump has lot of baggage to deal with Biden can attack if you look at both Candidates Trump has more baggage to defend then Biden does. While hard core Maga hat Trump fans overlook it all reality is he needs lot more then that to win. Trump has to try and reach more then his base he could do that before he had no political record only a business, and Personality record to run on that won't work this time. The public no longer looks at trump from his popular TV shows see him as president for the last year.
If the Cornoravirus never happend I would say Trump has a decent chance of winning, but not now.
This has been a time of crisis, and the American public will not switch gears to elect a brand new President during a crisis, and one with dementia at that, in Biden.
Considering Biden is corrupt, has a sexual allegation against him, has spent 50 years+ in the DC swamp with no real world job, and add in the huge mental decline, and Biden is not a good candidate.
Americans are also very upset at the extended lockdowns and shutdowns of their economies, mostly headed up by blue governors, mayors and representatives.
Trump is best to bring the economy back too.
I predict Trump wins every state he won in 2016, with maybe the exception of Arizona. Trump may win New Hampshire too.
This has been a time of crisis, and the American public will not switch gears to elect a brand new President during a crisis, and one with dementia at that, in Biden.
Considering Biden is corrupt, has a sexual allegation against him, has spent 50 years+ in the DC swamp with no real world job, and add in the huge mental decline, and Biden is not a good candidate.
Americans are also very upset at the extended lockdowns and shutdowns of their economies, mostly headed up by blue governors, mayors and representatives.
Trump is best to bring the economy back too.
I predict Trump wins every state he won in 2016, with maybe the exception of Arizona. Trump may win New Hampshire too.
Can you list what Trump has done for the Economy? Other then signing a tax cut into law I can't find anything else. He attempted to bring back the Steel industry every one of those companies closed back up with in the year.
While I agree China has had upper hand for years his tariffs on China have had zero positive affects if anything we might have had even better economy if he left it alone. Although I feel he was on the right path with China.
Trump rolled back EPA laws on Coal power plants they shut down anyway because just cheaper to build, and operate automated gas fired plants lot less employees to run them. ( I work for a power company that I know ).
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
