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Calling all Trump supporters... You must go out and vote for Trump to defeat this prediction model... If you are thinking about not voting, this model should be a kick in the butt to do it and spread the news... We need you.... Let's make this liberal propaganda backfire on their faces!
It is a weak position to hang your hat on. Sure, some Americans think he is doing a good job with the economy pre-COVID19. Maybe even a slim majority of them think that. You can't walk into the polls on Election Day and vote for the guy on a promise of a better economy when it tanked under his watch.*** Incumbents win on a good economy because we all making money. We are gainfully employed. If we invest, those investments are doing well. If we are a business owner, customers are happily being parted from their money for your goods and services. If you are a retiree, you have no fear the government can't continue to send that SS check.
40% of the country may support Trump regardless of the state of the economy come November. They might buy into the "Trump is the only one who can fix it."
Another 45% of the country might say "I don't care - I"m not voting for Trump."
The independents though... it is going to be hard to win them over on the economy if the economy is NOT in good shape by November. Whether you think Trump is partially responsible for it or not.
And that's before people even begin weighing all the other factors worth discussing about Trump.
***Note from above: Presidents aren't always responsible for the state of the economy, but they ARE judged by it.
38% will vote for Trump no matter what
42% will vote against Trump no matter what
20% will make up their mind the last two weeks.
What is the challenge for dems? enthusiasm for Joe = getting out the vote
What is the challenge for Trump? independents = who they vote for
That might be true of most Presidents, but polling over the course of the past 2 years has shown that isn't the case with Trump. If you look at the trends, you will see closer to 49-52% unfavorable to Trump with 40-45% favorable with roughly 4-6% undecided at any given time. Trump is so polarizing that, at this point, I don't think there are many people who don't have their minds made up already.
38% will vote for Trump no matter what
42% will vote against Trump no matter what
20% will make up their mind the last two weeks.
That 38-42-20 is a useful way of looking at the popular vote.
But the popular vote is irrelevant in an election.
Those figures vary dramatically depending on the state.
Trump won 2016 with his personality, so that's the real key.
Trump is the only candidate in American history to have a personality.
You can't rely on a model for such a unique candidate.
Trump provides a certain "it or cult of personality" factor to his base. That is something that is just very tough to model so I have to agree with you on that.
Trump can count on a solid 37 to 42% of his base showing up to the voting booth regardless of what happens between now and November 3rd. Although still relatively low it is enough for him to win some key battleground states if Biden doesn't get strong support across the board and/or those who don't really like both Biden or Trump lean towards Trump.
I think the odds of Trump winning reelection are right at 50/50. It really depends on voter turnout in the urban areas (can Biden and his VP running mate essentially unite the left in urban areas/college towns to show up for him) in about your 6-7 battleground states and whether they can outvote the heavily Trump favored rural areas. It also will depend on what direction suburban white women go as they were huge for Trump in 2016 but enough turned away in 2018 and in some of the governor's races to become a concern for team red.
It also will depend on what direction suburban white women go as they were huge for Trump in 2016 but enough turned away in 2018 and in some of the governor's races to become a concern for team red.
And yet, in 2018 Republicans won Florida Governorship and Senate, and that's the key state, because the last 2 candidates to win a General Election without Florida were Clinton92 and JFK60.
If Trump wins Florida, got to like his chances based on history alone.
Trump is obviously going to lose due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus. Problem is Trump supporters live in their own bubble and ignore anything that doesnt give them confirmation bias. They truly believe they are the silent majority when most of the country cant stand Trump or his annoying supporters.
I think you might be part of the "sky screaming" group come November. LOL
The bulk of those living in a bubble are the folks on the far left/liberal east and west coasts.
Do you honestly think people on the whole will blame Trump for the COVID situation and economic downturn? None of this was his fault. Prior to this, he built the best economy the US has pretty much ever seen.
We are in a unique situation and I think people know Trump is a businessman and has a great sense of what it takes to make a solid economy again, and will want to remain with him during this situation.
If the Democrats had a decent candidate, they might be able to pitch a good reason to elect him/her.
But with an ailing Biden in that spot, the Democrats are left with not only a dementia-laced old man, but a corrupt, 50 years+ in the DC swamp old man, who is somewhat creepy in his old age, and a bit clueless about the economy and business.
Biden cannot find his way into a successful zoom call. How can he lead the most powerful nation on earth back from an economic recession?
He just can't and won't be able to. He's far too feeble, and folks see that.
I think you might be part of the "sky screaming" group come November. LOL
This year, that is going to be the Trumpies doing that.
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The bulk of those living in a bubble are the folks on the far left/liberal east and west coasts.
See below ....
Quote:
Do you honestly think people on the whole will blame Trump for the COVID situation and economic downturn? None of this was his fault.
Presidents always get blamed for things that aren't their fault. Trump will be no different.
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Prior to this, he built the best economy the US has pretty much ever seen.
This is clear proof it is you who is living in a bubble.
Trumps economic numbers, even going just up to February, were pretty average. The only reason anyone would believe otherwise is because they've been drinking large quantities of the Kool Aid.
This year, that is going to be the Trumpies doing that.
See below ....
Presidents always get blamed for things that aren't their fault. Trump will be no different.
This is clear proof it is you who is living in a bubble.
Trumps economic numbers, even going just up to February, were pretty average. The only reason anyone would believe otherwise is because they've been drinking large quantities of the Kool Aid.
Eh, I don't think so.
Biden is a long shot. The issue with Biden is that he is just not a good candidate-he is easily beatable by Trump.
It's almost as if the Democrats wanted to lose in 2020, and now are panicking and scrambling to "not lose."
I was taking a good serious look at Biden in early 2020, to vote for him. But I can't cast a vote for Biden just "because I hate Trump." I don't hate Trump, but that's the reasoning behind most Democrat/left folks who are voting Biden this year.
Trump can hopefully lead us out of this economic hole. Biden, not so sure he is sharp enough anymore to do so.
Biden probably wouldn't even know what was going on most of his presidency. He will resign a year in, and the VP will take over.
So I'm waiting to see who he actually selects. That will be telling.
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