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Norpoth conceded to Ingraham that the COVID-19 pandemic could have an impact but noted that he's not seeing a "dent" in Trump's approval rating.
"In fact, in the early goings he got a little uptick. And, unless his approval rating collapses, I don't think that this would have much bearing on my forecast," he remarked.
He's correct in that regard, Trump's average approval rating is 44.1 at RealClearPolitics.
In September 2018 it was 40.1!
Norpoth conceded to Ingraham that the COVID-19 pandemic could have an impact but noted that he's not seeing a "dent" in Trump's approval rating.
"In fact, in the early goings he got a little uptick. And, unless his approval rating collapses, I don't think that this would have much bearing on my forecast," he remarked.
He's correct in that regard, Trump's average approval rating is 44.1 at RealClearPolitics.
In September 2018 it was 40.1!
Rasmussen: Trump approvalreaches lowest level in 2 years
Not unless you count the type of win Trump achieved in 2016 as a “landslide”.
From an Electoral perpective, which is all that counts, it was a comfortable victory, which very few saw coming..except this professor.
Hillary had a 48% enthusiasm rating just prior to the election that she lost, and Joe's is at 28% 1-2 months ago. No newer ratings have come out wihich bodes bad for the Dems.
How can Joe possibly win with an enthusism rating that low? Enthusiasm correlates to turnout.
Joe Biden is in deep trouble, and cannot find an exciting VP running mate to bail him out.
It is odd that Professor Norpoth gives great weight to Mr. Trump's primary victories, as if Mr. Trump was facing incredible odds to win the Republican primaries. He also does not mention the states that cancelled said primaries, since Mr. Trump was running essentially unopposed.
Also:
"That said, according to Newsday, there are some factors the professor doesn't take into account like the state of the world -- a pandemic, an unprecedented economic crisis, a country in turmoil over systemic racial injustice -- and which states Trump would have to win to clinch the 362 electoral votes."
So, other than those little details, I have no doubt that the model is exactly correct.
I'll say it is an interesting way to model it. I actually spent the time to read it. Weird thing is, it seems to only look at the popular vote. Which I'm sure MAGAlot and other people with similar ideology would say is irrelevant. So you would think you would NOT support this model (but you do because you support Trump).
You do realize the EC has been around forever, and it is only the leftist (who try to tear down and/or change everything) who think a so called "popular vote" is a good idea.
Moderates and some liberals agree that we should always keep the EC for sound reasons, but the leftists/socialists/globalists what to destroy American from within.
So, because tRump wins his uncontested "primary" more easily than Biden does against more than a dozen competitors, tRump is highly favored in November.
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I have never seen one. Why?
Laughable!
