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Old 06-15-2020, 11:26 AM
 
Location: NY
5,209 posts, read 1,797,134 times
Reputation: 3423

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Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
You'd love Florida...no state income taxes, no death taxes, and the lockdown was measured and effective, as is the re-opening. Our Nursing home residents were cared for with the utmost respect and caution. Florida's Governor DeSantis is great on the environment too, and education.
I've thought about it But I really couldn't handle the humidity. I barely make it through August in NY. I think DeSantis is a much better governor than Cuomo. He gets a raw deal from the press though.
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Old 06-15-2020, 03:47 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,295,922 times
Reputation: 7284
A better question would be “will threats of violence save Trump’s bacon in suburbia”?

Otherwise, he’s cooked.

I don’t think that the majority of voters will turn to Trump, of all people, as a candidate of stability and order.

It would be like hiring a pyromaniac as a fire chief.
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Old 06-15-2020, 05:52 PM
 
34,062 posts, read 17,081,326 times
Reputation: 17213
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
A better question would be “will threats of violence save Trump’s bacon in suburbia”?

Otherwise, he’s cooked.

I don’t think that the majority of voters will turn to Trump, of all people, as a candidate of stability and order.

It would be like hiring a pyromaniac as a fire chief.
https://www.city-data.com/forum/elec...e-point-2.html

Kreskin, you ain't. From post 18: by Bureaucat:


"My guesses

1. Clinton will win, by no less than Obama 2012 (3.86%) and no more than Obama 2008 (7.2%). We're too polarized for a double digit landslide, even when one of the candidates is clearly incompetent.

2. Hillary wins with less than 50%. Johnson and Stein will pull enough votes to deny Hilldawg a majority, but not enough to give Trump a real chance. Donnie will make McCain's percentage of the popular vote in 2008 look impressive.

3. Trump fails to match Romney's abysmal 17% share of the minority vote.

4. Trump fares the worst of all GOP nominees among white college grads since 1952.

5. Driven by both high concentrations of white n/h college grads and minority voters, Colorado and Virginia lose their purple tinge and are revealed to be solid blue.

6. Trump's Rust Belt Offensive comes up empty because massive defeats in the suburbs, primarily due to rejection by college women overwhelms Trump gains in rural areas.

7. Trump refuses to concede, even though he loses by millions of votes and will claim the election is just evidence that the system is rigged."
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Old 06-15-2020, 06:20 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,295,922 times
Reputation: 7284
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
https://www.city-data.com/forum/elec...e-point-2.html

Kreskin, you ain't. From post 18: by Bureaucat:


"My guesses

1. Clinton will win, by no less than Obama 2012 (3.86%) and no more than Obama 2008 (7.2%). We're too polarized for a double digit landslide, even when one of the candidates is clearly incompetent.

2. Hillary wins with less than 50%. Johnson and Stein will pull enough votes to deny Hilldawg a majority, but not enough to give Trump a real chance. Donnie will make McCain's percentage of the popular vote in 2008 look impressive.

3. Trump fails to match Romney's abysmal 17% share of the minority vote.

4. Trump fares the worst of all GOP nominees among white college grads since 1952.

5. Driven by both high concentrations of white n/h college grads and minority voters, Colorado and Virginia lose their purple tinge and are revealed to be solid blue.

6. Trump's Rust Belt Offensive comes up empty because massive defeats in the suburbs, primarily due to rejection by college women overwhelms Trump gains in rural areas.

7. Trump refuses to concede, even though he loses by millions of votes and will claim the election is just evidence that the system is rigged."
Perhaps I’m no Kreskin, but you’re on the wrong side of history.
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Old 06-15-2020, 06:25 PM
 
34,062 posts, read 17,081,326 times
Reputation: 17213
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Perhaps I’m no Kreskin, but you’re on the wrong side of history.
I am judging your previous ability to predict. It is abysmal.
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Old 06-15-2020, 07:52 PM
 
11,988 posts, read 5,295,922 times
Reputation: 7284
[quote=BobNJ1960;58391040]https://www.city-data.com/forum/elec...e-point-2.html

Kreskin, you ain't. From post 18: by Bureaucat:


"My guesses

1. Clinton will win, by no less than Obama 2012 (3.86%) and no more than Obama 2008 (7.2%). We're too polarized for a double digit landslide, even when one of the candidates is clearly incompetent.

Trump won in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote by 2.09%

So that was clearly a miss


2. Hillary wins with less than 50%. Johnson and Stein will pull enough votes to deny Hilldawg a majority, but not enough to give Trump a real chance. Donnie will make McCain's percentage of the popular vote in 2008 look impressive.

Clinton won the popular vote, but only received 48.02% with a strong third party vote.

Not sure if that’s a miss, because I was talking about the popular vote.


3. Trump fails to match Romney's abysmal 17% share of the minority vote.

Correct. Trump received the lowest percentage of the black vote Probably since Goldwater in 1964.
4. Trump fares the worst of all GOP nominees among white college grads since 1952.

Not sure on this one, but probably correct.

5. Driven by both high concentrations of white n/h college grads and minority voters, Colorado and Virginia lose their purple tinge and are revealed to be solid blue.

Correct. Colorado and Virginia are solid blue.
6. Trump's Rust Belt Offensive comes up empty because massive defeats in the suburbs, primarily due to rejection by college women overwhelms Trump gains in rural areas.

Wrong. Trump did worse in the suburbs of the Rust Belt than Romney, but won by just enough in rural areas to win the trifecta of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a total of 77,000 votes.

7. Trump refuses to concede, even though he loses by millions of votes and will claim the election is just evidence that the system is rigged."

Incorrect because Trump won, but correct in the sense that Trump tried to declare his loss of the popular vote as illegitimate.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-15-2020 at 08:30 PM..
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:56 PM
 
34,062 posts, read 17,081,326 times
Reputation: 17213
[quote=Bureaucat;58391872]
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
https://www.city-data.com/forum/elec...e-point-2.html

Kreskin, you ain't. From post 18: by Bureaucat:


"My guesses

1. Clinton will win, by no less than Obama 2012 (3.86%) and no more than Obama 2008 (7.2%). We're too polarized for a double digit landslide, even when one of the candidates is clearly incompetent.

Trump won in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote by 2.09%

So that was clearly a miss


2. Hillary wins with less than 50%. Johnson and Stein will pull enough votes to deny Hilldawg a majority, but not enough to give Trump a real chance. Donnie will make McCain's percentage of the popular vote in 2008 look impressive.

Clinton won the popular vote, but only received 48.02% with a strong third party vote.

Not sure if that’s a miss, because I was talking about the popular vote.


3. Trump fails to match Romney's abysmal 17% share of the minority vote.

Correct. Trump received the lowest percentage of the black vote Probably since Goldwater in 1964.
4. Trump fares the worst of all GOP nominees among white college grads since 1952.

Not sure on this one, but probably correct.

5. Driven by both high concentrations of white n/h college grads and minority voters, Colorado and Virginia lose their purple tinge and are revealed to be solid blue.

Correct. Colorado and Virginia are solid blue.
6. Trump's Rust Belt Offensive comes up empty because massive defeats in the suburbs, primarily due to rejection by college women overwhelms Trump gains in rural areas.

Wrong. Trump did worse in the suburbs of the Rust Belt than Romney, but won by just enough in rural areas to win the trifecta of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a total of 77,000 votes.

7. Trump refuses to concede, even though he loses by millions of votes and will claim the election is just evidence that the system is rigged."

Incorrect because Trump won, but correct in the sense that Trump tried to declare his loss of the popular vote as illegitimate.
you did about as well as this man: (Bill Buckner)

https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...x=7&ajaxhist=0
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
1,742 posts, read 959,658 times
Reputation: 2848
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmom2 View Post
I'm a white suburban woman. I haven't decided on my vote for President, but it doesn't really matter because my state of NY is always blue. Last time I voted third party in protest. It's a throwaway vote. But for every other office, I will vote Republican. The DNC agenda is just nuts. They have completely lost me.

Trump's agenda isn't 'failed,' it's his personalty and temperament. If someone else ran on his platform of borders, no more useless foreign wars, trade, and the economy, I would volunteer to work for their campaign. Who doesn't want JOBS in this country? Who WANTS to fight endless wars? Those are issues that many people share, especially in contrast to open borders, no police--except for the Thought Police, and free college.


You just said exactly how I feel. I can't stand Trump, his toxic personality, his pettiness, his vindictiveness, his vanity...etc...etc. But......I support most of his platform. If someone else was out there that supported even 50% of his platform, I would probably vote for them over Trump. But there isn't an alternative. The Joe Biden and Democratic Party of 2008 wouldn't be such a bad choice right now. But that Biden and that version of the Democratic Party is gone. There is no way I am going to vote for ANY Democrat this election. I'm an independent, and I'm not a fan of the Republican Party, but right now, the Democrats are actually dangerous for this country. To me, they are not very different from the Democratic Party of 1860. They are willing to tear this country apart and commit political violence to get power.
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:26 PM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,068,177 times
Reputation: 7879
The latest Fox News poll has Biden winning the suburbs by 22 points. Neither Fox nor OAN have been able to provide polls that have been positive for Trump.

So there's that.

And I'll spare his supporters the usual "but muh 2016 polls were wrong!!" argument. It's not 2016.
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:42 PM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,068,177 times
Reputation: 7879
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeutralZone View Post
[/b]

You just said exactly how I feel. I can't stand Trump, his toxic personality, his pettiness, his vindictiveness, his vanity...etc...etc. But......I support most of his platform. If someone else was out there that supported even 50% of his platform, I would probably vote for them over Trump. But there isn't an alternative. The Joe Biden and Democratic Party of 2008 wouldn't be such a bad choice right now. But that Biden and that version of the Democratic Party is gone. There is no way I am going to vote for ANY Democrat this election. I'm an independent, and I'm not a fan of the Republican Party, but right now, the Democrats are actually dangerous for this country. To me, they are not very different from the Democratic Party of 1860. They are willing to tear this country apart and commit political violence to get power.
I have never had a Trump supporter be able to answer just what policies of Trump's they support, especially in relation to either how effective they've supposedly been or if they've actually been net positives for the country. Trump doesn't seem to attract people who have these deep takes on policy. It's usually more about platitudes like "he speaks his mind" or because he spends so much time dog whistling about immigrants and other minorities. I suspect if I asked you, you would be no different, but you're certainly welcome to try. Or, for that matter, explain how Democrats have changed drastically since 2008.

The other problem with your position is that Trump's personality has a direct link to his leadership abilities. You intentionally ignore the chaos he creates with his personality. He divides everyone. A president is supposed to be the president of every American, not just his supporters, not just those who kiss his butt or massage his fragile ego. During a crisis, a president is supposed to be there to be a calm voice in dark times- and these are sure as sh** dark times- and to surround himself with people who can help him perform at the highest levels. A president is supposed to be a strong leader, but he is completely absent. When he's not hiding in a bunker or gassing Americans for a pointless photo op, he does nothing but point fingers at everyone and everything else. He has never accepted responsibility for *anything*. We're a long, long way from "The buck stops here" presidents.

Beyond all that, though, you ignore Trump's darkest inclinations. He has attacked the 1st Amendment. He has defended murderers and Nazis. He bragged about sexual assault. He has befriended just about every dictator and authoritarian monster on the planet, and seems to want to be one himself. You don't overlook these terrible things just because you think your taxes are lower with him. If you do, Trump is not the only monster... or fool. Frankly, the fact that you're projecting every fact about Trump and modern Republicans onto Democrats means you're not exactly in this to make a rational debate.
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