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Trump isn't winning Minnesota. That is a Republican pipe dream. The best poll for Trump in the state in the last month showed Biden +4, the worst was Biden +16 with an average of Biden +9.
Just because a bunch of right wingers are irate at what happened in Minnesota doesn't mean the state is swinging to the right. Republicans in Minnesota may be twice as angry as they were before but they aren't twice as numerous.
Trump isn't winning Minnesota. That is a Republican pipe dream. The best poll for Trump in the state in the last month showed Biden +4, the worst was Biden +16 with an average of Biden +9.
Just because a bunch of right wingers are irate at what happened in Minnesota doesn't mean the state is swinging to the right. Republicans in Minnesota may be twice as angry as they were before but they aren't twice as numerous.
Look at the voting history of Minnesota last time they voted R was 1972 it's a joke when someone says Trump will carry the state.
Trafalgar's obvious shortcoming is they assume "shy voters" only exist on the Repub side. What happens when there are more shy, silent voters on the Biden side? Sooner or later their algorithm is doomed to fail.
It's a weird hill to die on when 99 percent of polls were garbage in 2016?
Trafalgar underestimated Trump in Ohio I believe
Trafalgar isn't perfect but it's top 3
99 percent is just a bit hyperbole.
I'm pointing out facts. Trafalgar missed "bigly" on Nevada.
You know what? Sure. 2016 was a garbage year for polls. So, throw that year out entirely. Cool.
Now, let's talk about 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, etc etc. Polls were great. National polls alone nailed the winner of the Electoral College 17 of the last 19 elections, 2016 included. If I was a betting man, I'd have made more just betting what the polls say than flipping a coin.
Polling for whatever reason is sampling more democrats than Republicans, a lot of them
Shy Trump vote and not reaching rural areas have some effect, but having a D+11 sample when a certain state is D+5 is pretty bad
You guys really need to read about how polling works. Oversampling is corrected by weighting. Just because a poll has oversampled a group does not mean that they assign the same weight to those oversampled responses as they do to the undersampled responses.
Polling for whatever reason is sampling more democrats than Republicans, a lot of them
Shy Trump vote and not reaching rural areas have some effect, but having a D+11 sample when a certain state is D+5 is pretty bad
1992 had a legitimate third party candidate. I don't think including 1992 would be a comparison to today. However, national polls predicted a Clinton win. And he won. And in 1980, they predicted a Reagan win and he won.
National polls accurately predicted the winner in 17 of the last 19 elections. I didn't make any indication on how off they were. Whether Biden was up by 1 or up by 10, he'd fall in that 17 of 19 category, which is a success rate of 90% for national polls.
That's probably why they still do national polls. If I was correct nearly 90% of the time, I'd stake my claim on that. If Trump was up by 1 point on November 2nd, I'd say "he is likely to win." There isn't bias to that.
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