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Wisconsin was the only state that was truly off- but it was off by a lot. The other states were margin of error and in every single case Trump was the one gaining.
Here's 538's analysis. The number shown is Trump's actual result vs the average of polls:
All seven of them had polls the night before that were leaning Clinton, except for Arizona.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpeatie
Biden has two advantages- he is much closer to 50% than Hillary and Trump is the incumbent. You can't nurse a 44-41 lead across the finish line they way you might a 50-47% race.
I agree. In 2016 Trump was the new outsider and he cleaned up on late-breaking voters who were undecided. He does not have that working for him this time. The latest YouGov poll found 7% of respondents who voted for Trump now "strongly disapprove" of him. That's potentially lethal for him.
Wisconsin was the only state that was truly off- but it was off by a lot. The other states were margin of error and in every single case Trump was the one gaining.
Biden has two advantages- he is much closer to 50% than Hillary and Trump is the incumbent. You can't nurse a 44-41 lead across the finish line they way you might a 50-47% race.
Being is an advantage not the other way around regardless of the polls.
Wisconsin was the only state that was truly off- but it was off by a lot. The other states were margin of error and in every single case Trump was the one gaining.
Biden has two advantages- he is much closer to 50% than Hillary and Trump is the incumbent. You can't nurse a 44-41 lead across the finish line they way you might a 50-47% race.
Wisconsin actually had fewer votes for Trump than Romney. So it wasn't really that the state turned drastically red. The people who would have voted Democrat just largely didn't care much for Hillary Clinton and the polls did not pick it up.
Does a Biden/Harris ticket appeal at large to those people in WI, MI, and MN or does Trump appeal to you so little that you would vote for anything? That is largely the question in those three states.
Now Biden only leads by 3.6 in Top Battleground States (Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona).
If an election was held today, it won't surprise me if Trump wins all those battleground states. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...ground-states/
Biden's biggest lead is 6.7 in Michigan, but that actually isn't a lock, because the last 2 Michigan polls only have Biden ahead by 4 and 5.
Now Biden only leads by 3.6 in Top Battleground States (Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona).
If an election was held today, it won't surprise me if Trump wins all those battleground states. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...ground-states/
Biden's biggest lead is 6.7 in Michigan, but that actually isn't a lock, because the last 2 Michigan polls only have Biden ahead by 4 and 5.
Toss out the outlines like the poll showing Biden up by 11 in Michigan. The poll with Biden up by 9 in Pennsylvania.
And the polling averages probably become more accurate.
Toss out the outlines like the poll showing Biden up by 11 in Michigan. The poll with Biden up by 9 in Pennsylvania.
The polling averages likely become more realistic.
Exactly, Biden only up 4 in the latest Pennsylvania poll.
And the convention may put Trump over the top.
More Durham action to follow too, and the debates....
Exactly, Biden only up 4 in the latest Pennsylvania poll. And the convention may put Trump over the top.
More Durham action to follow too, and the debates....
The DNC convention appears to have pushed the numbers in the battleground states...in the wrong direction for Biden.
However, the Rep. convention still has two days to go.
Monday/Tuesday weren't bad but Trump can't afford any mistakes on Wed/Thursday.
Wisconsin actually had fewer votes for Trump than Romney. So it wasn't really that the state turned drastically red. The people who would have voted Democrat just largely didn't care much for Hillary Clinton and the polls did not pick it up.
Does a Biden/Harris ticket appeal at large to those people in WI, MI, and MN or does Trump appeal to you so little that you would vote for anything? That is largely the question in those three states.
I think Biden is more palatable to Catholics and working class voters than Clinton was. I think AAs who under voted in 2016 are also more likely to come to the polls- the states that would have the biggest impact are PA, Michigan and Wisconsin- voters centered around Philly, Wayne County, and Dane county to be specific.
One other thing to notice is people are much more locked in this year- Biden's Pa lead of 49-46 in the latest poll is infinitely better than Clinton's 44-41 leads in 2016 because it leaves fewer votes to sway. Even though Trump did better with late deciders, Clinton still had a 2 % bounce on election day. That would put Biden out of reach. If young people actually show up to vote (big if) and folks from the left reconsider sitting it out, Biden has a well of potential voters similar to the ones Trump found at the end of 2016.
This is a disaster for Biden, the polls tightening and we haven't even seen the impact of what looks like a very successful Republican Convention, and the debates are expected to favor Trump too.
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