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Dems overplayed their hands on the social justice platform....granted, they had nothing else, but they sponsored one too many riots with a hand's off approach to crime waves in blue states.
The latest two are starting to sink them in the polls. They're starting to show people that one side is for law and order while the other is akin to supporting suicide bombers.
I'm no fan of polls, but challengers normally do better early, and the lead slips away.
President Dukakis (sar) was up in polls by close to 18%. POTUS Hilary Clinton (sar) also had a double digit summertime lead.
The number I pay attention to on rcp (as there is heavy money bet by folks who track it religiously) is the betting odds. Biden is up, by a slim margin, and he was past 60% 2 months ago, on the betting odds.
Trump will outperform pols just like 2016, so IMO if Biden is to win, he needs to be up far more in swing states that what recent polls suggest. Needs double digit gaps there.
His strategy of hiding is stupid.
Last edited by BobNJ1960; 08-29-2020 at 03:30 PM..
2 months ago, Biden was up big in the polls and at times having over a 10 point lead in the polls. Trump was getting destroyed, with the church photo-op and especially after a major flop at his Tulsa rally. It seemed that the election was done and that Biden would win with ease. However, now the race is much more competitive and it feels like Trump is on the upswing while Biden is losing momentum. The polls in the swing states are tightening, and Trump's approval has hit 44% in RCP for the first time since May. What is going on? How did the trajectory of the race change so quickly?
The Dems along with the MSM have done their best to down play the non-stop chaos since the Floyd shooting.
Much of the public is simply fed up. I mean CHAZ? A summer of love? Seriously. Then you have the tearing down of statues and a public which is thinking, "So, a mob decides what stays... and what goes?"
Now Trump has his law and order issue and Dems are on the defensive. But remember the election is still a lifetime away. Yes, Trump has the momentum. However, that can change overnight.
Major plus for Trump: He's back on the campaign trail.
For Biden: The MSM will continue their carpet bombing of Trump 24/7.
I never got the idea that Biden was on his way to a win, and don't see how anyone could have ever thought that. Yeah, anyone that wants to quote the polls needs to google for polling results in 2016 for the same time period. Hillary was winning up to, I think, the day before the election, and even she thought she had it. There are many reasons why polling isn't relevant anymore, it makes for an interesting read.
The hypocrisy of the allowing such mass protests with arson, looting, assault, and even murder, with literally NO consequences while telling everyone who's NOT a protester to "stay home and save lives" and locking down a good portion of the economy. If I meet someone who lives in another household, I could get fined for violating Covid restrictions but if I go protest with thousands of strangers, shoulder to shoulder, it's not only totally fine, but encouraged. If the mass protests/riots hadn't happened and the government had been allowed to re open the economy and let people (even with restrictions on group size and limiting numbers in restaurants in indoor venues), I really think Biden would have won but both mistakes have ruined any chances. Even California may go to Trump this election.
Current RCP Average is Biden +6.9
Current 538 Aggregate is Biden + 8.6
Biden's lead in the RCP average while down from the highs has stayed in a range of less than 4 points since the 2nd week of June (6.4-10.1)
His lead in the 538 Aggregate while also off from the highs has been in the same 2 point range since the 2nd week of June (7.6-9.6)
Biden's lead in both are higher now than they were at pretty much any period prior to early June
How many times must you be told that it is a handful of states that matter? You are still making the Hillary Clinton mistake of believing that somehow Cali and New York can save you:
Its all make believe until ~3 days out from the election. Its WWF.
Imagine you are a script writer for WWF, & you'll figure it out political polls
One guy has to be beating the crap out of the other guy until he's almost dead. Then, the almost dead guy staggers to his feet, regains himself, and starts striking back.
Next thing you know and almost dead guy is wearing the World Championship belt.
That is precisely what we are seeing here. It's what sells advertising.
They cant be tied, or one guy cant be way ahead wire to wire...who's clicking on that?
Last edited by beach43ofus; 08-29-2020 at 06:24 PM..
How many times must you be told that it is a handful of states that matter? You are still making the Hillary Clinton mistake of believing that somehow Cali and New York can save you:
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