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2.7% in swing states, and they are the only states that matter.
We do 51 independent elections that day, DC, plus 50 states.
Not a national election in terms of scorekeeping. Did you miss the part of Civics class that discussed the EC?
No, but he isn't going to lose by 7 or 8 nationally and win the EC. A 3 point national loss, maybe 3.5-4 at the very most is what it can be realistically stretched to and still wind up winning the EV
Of course the 2.7 margin you mention he is trailing is among six states that he all won in 2016, which amounts to a 4.5 or so point swing from 2016. While a little closer (in large part to one Republican polling group) it is still showing he is down.
2 months ago, Biden was up big in the polls and at times having over a 10 point lead in the polls. Trump was getting destroyed, with the church photo-op and especially after a major flop at his Tulsa rally. It seemed that the election was done and that Biden would win with ease. However, now the race is much more competitive and it feels like Trump is on the upswing while Biden is losing momentum. The polls in the swing states are tightening, and Trump's approval has hit 44% in RCP for the first time since May. What is going on? How did the trajectory of the race change so quickly?
I keep hearing about this big shift but so far have not really seen it. Presidential race pretty flat since the first week of August, based on the aggregate RCP poll of Trump vs Biden. Biden still at +6.9%.
It is amazing. I bet they’re very worried about what will happen on the campaign trail but they’ve really painted themselves into a corner. They honestly thought gaslighting the public would work. It amazes me how the Democrats cannot see what they’ve done wrong since Trump’s election.
It's more amazing how Trump supporters don't see how much of a corrupt, traitorous monster Trump is, but we can call it a draw, I guess.
What is going on? How did the trajectory of the race change so quickly?
Call it the "Hillary Syndrome".
Polls joyously announce the liberal candidate is tons ahead. Then as the election day nears, they start admitting the conservative candidate is closer, and they try to pretend this is a change from where he was earlier.
No, but he isn't going to lose by 7 or 8 nationally and win the EC. A 3 point national loss, maybe 3.5-4 at the very most is what it can be realistically stretched to and still wind up winning the EV
Of course the 2.7 margin you mention he is trailing is among six states that he all won in 2016, which amounts to a 4.5 or so point swing from 2016. While a little closer (in large part to one Republican polling group) it is still showing he is down.
This will be as close in total votes as 2016, no doubt, or closer.
We will not see a 7-8 % gap for decades. But the nat'l gap if more than HRC will simply be more margin in Ca or NY, which is not a game changer. Its why Conway was correct ignoring national polls in 2016. They do NOT matter. My Mets just lost to NY Yankees, despite having more hits. Nat'l vote winner is as immaterial as the team with more hits. EC votes is all that matters.
PS: The group you label Republican pollsters were the only ones to get the Rust belt correct in 2016 polls, repeatedly btw.
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The number of riots (not peaceful protests) increased recently and left leaning media like the NPR and the NY Times are openly supporting rioting and looting. Biden's in a no win position. Any strong words against rioters and he looses critical support from liberals, saying nothing like he's now doing and he's loosing moderates. The Democrat Party is so split no single candidate can unite it like Obama did in 2008 and 2012. If Biden looses I think there will be a revolt and large movement of liberals towards a further left party like the Greens.
This will be as close in total votes as 2016, no doubt, or closer.
We will not see a 7-8 % gap for decades. But the nat'l gap if more than HRC will simply be more margin in Ca or NY, which is not a game changer. Its why Conway was correct ignoring national polls in 2016. They do NOT matter. My Mets just lost to NY Yankees, despite having more hits. Nat'l vote winner is as immaterial as the team with more hits. EC votes is all that matters.
PS: The group you label Republican pollsters were the only ones to get the Rust belt correct in 2016 polls, repeatedly btw.
There is a point where it becomes impossible to still win the EV when the PV is at a certain level. In 2016 the PV margin was 2.1, Trump won three states by less a point and a 4th by 1.2. A small change in the PV likely takes those states with ot. Also while Trafalgar made some correct calls in 2016 that most pollsters did not the overall track record they have isn't all that good.
There is a point where it becomes impossible to still win the EV when the PV is at a certain level. In 2016 the PV margin was 2.1, Trump won three states by less a point and a 4th by 1.2. A small change in the PV likely takes those states with ot. Also while Trafalgar made some correct calls in 2016 that most pollsters did not the overall track record they have isn't all that good.
Nonsense. If popular vote moves, it would be gap in Ca or NY in Dems case.
Trump's staff recognized that when you aggregate rural counties, small individually, in total its a massive population. Add in suburban men, 40% suburban women, you win Rust Belt, particularly due to fact they lack cities like NYC, where that population overwhelms the rest of the state.
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