How does Trump win the election if he loses Florida?

[jas75]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

Assuming he loses Florida it’s due to weakness with Hispanics and seniors, which would make it unlikely he wins Arizona.

I'm not sure this holds as Hispanics have a rather different profile in Florida vs. Arizona. The Hispanic population in Florida is more mixed in terms of economic status and nationality, while Arizona is more predominantly lower to middle income and of Mexican background. Arizona Hispanics tend to be a much more heavily Democratic constituent group, like in adjacent California.

Also, Arizona does not have a particularly large share of senior citizens at 18% compared to Florida at 21% - the national average is 16.5%. I think Trump is in better shape in Florida (which is after all, his home state) compared to Arizona, but he is probably more likely to keep both states than lose either.

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by jas75

I'm not sure this holds as Hispanics have a rather different profile in Florida vs. Arizona. The Hispanic population in Florida is more mixed in terms of economic status and nationality, while Arizona is more predominantly lower to middle income and of Mexican background. Arizona Hispanics tend to be a much more heavily Democratic constituent group, like in adjacent California.

Also, Arizona does not have a particularly large share of senior citizens at 18% compared to Florida at 21% - the national average is 16.5%. I think Trump is in better shape in Florida (which is after all, his home state) compared to Arizona, but he is probably more likely to keep both states than lose either.

McSally is going to be a drag on the whole Republican ticket IMO.

Kelley is outrunning Biden by like 6 points

[jas75]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

McSally is going to be a drag on the whole Republican ticket IMO.

Kelley is outrunning Biden by like 6 points

Yes, my prediction is Kelly will probably win the Arizona Senate race and get some crossover Trump voters. Too bad for Democrats that Florida's Senate seats are not up this year.