Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This is especially true since pollsters missed the Trump vote in 2016 especially in the midwest. They are definitely weighting those voters this year. Trafalgar disagrees....we will see come election day.
Right, but Trafalgar thinks all of the "shy" votes will go to the Trump side. As myself and others have pointed out here, there is some evidence of a pool of "shy" Biden voters, an increase in the Never Trumper movement. There are Republicans who have had it with Trump and are willing to vote Biden so that sanity and moderation can return to the Republican party. We'll see.
BUT, check out where the money is going. For the first time since June 1, Trump and Biden are tied in the betting odds.
Yes, let's go with betting odds. That is a great predictor. Hey? Remember 2016? You had to put down $300 on Clinton winning the election to win $100. And you had to put down only $100 on Trump winning the election to win $275.
In other words, betting odds had Clinton winning with 3 to 1 odds. Not sure I'd consider the betting odds to be overly predictive. And keep in mind that the betting odds is likely tied to whomever will be sworn into office on January 20th, 2021. Trump tilts the odds in his favor when he asks his supporters in swing states to vote twice for him. The odds might be taking into account shenanigans. Whereas polls are not.
This reuters-ipsos poll is an opinion survey, and not a scientific poll of likely voters. It has a margin of error of 3-5%.
So, let's say instead of Biden having a 7% lead, due to the margin of error, it's 2%.
Then, let's say Democrat voter turnout is less than Republican turnout. The anticipated turnout can be guaged by some extent by likely voter enthusiasm, which is a metric that shows Trump dominating Biden by a wide spread. The NYT's, and recently Bill Maher both have sounded warning alarms about Biden's lack of voter enthusiasm.
Then, let's say Trump increases the number of Black & Latino votes than he got in 2016; which polls indicate is likely.
When these 3 items are factored in, Trump easily erases the opinion survey's 7% Biden lead, and Democrat voters are misled yet again in 2020, just as they were in 2016 by bad surveys & polls.
We have not even gotten to the debates yet, which nobody expects Biden to win.
How do you determine enthusiasm?
People keep claiming that there is a lack of voter enthusiasm and yet we’ve seen record voter turnout for Dem primaries this year.
Funny too, how you want to dismiss this as an “opinion survey.”
Just what exactly is it that informs people’s vote choices other than opinions?
The majority of people included in this survey believe that “Trump is at least partly responsible for the protracted school and business closures due to the virus, as well as for the high number of coronavirus cases in the United States.“
According to the Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, a similar majority believe that Biden would handle the Covid crisis better than Trump (56% to 40%.)
Or maybe due to the margin of error, Biden is up 12%. Just saying. You need to accept the possibility that the margins of error are in both directions - not just one. It is wishful thinking.
Remember Trafalgar in 2016? They thought Trump would win Nevada by 5 points. It swung 7 points away from Trump. The most likely scenario is the polls are off a little bit. History has shown this. But they could be off just a little, like 1 point. And that 1 point could be in Biden's favor.
I don't know why people are assuming polls can only be off in Trump's favor. We have decades of history that say otherwise.
Trafalgar was too high in every swing state. Pennsylvania was its best state at Trump +1 and the stated ended at +0.7. However, Trafalgar put out just one poll in the state on November 5th, well after the tide had begun to turn there and most other polls were showing a much tighter race.
Trafalgar missed Michigan by +1.7 points. Again, it only did 1 poll in the state before the election, a poll that ended on November 6th.
Trafalgar missed NC by +1.3 points in a poll that ended November 1st.
They missed Florida by +2.8 points in a poll that ended November 6th.
They missed Georgia by +1.9 points in a poll that ended November 6th.
So while they correctly predicted the winner in these states, their polls generally came a few days before the election after polling was already moving heavily towards Trump. Furthermore, it was still an average of +1.6 points too strong for Trump, which is a larger error than national polling was that so many think was way off. So yeah, it's a lot less impressive than some have made it out to be.
Given that 2020 polling is weighting polls based on things that were missed in 2016, it's unlikely there will be similar errors and Trafalgar may end up being the pollster that is much more off this time.
Trafalgar was too high in every swing state. Pennsylvania was its best state at Trump +1 and the stated ended at +0.7. However, Trafalgar put out just one poll in the state on November 5th, well after the tide had begun to turn there and most other polls were showing a much tighter race.
Trafalgar missed Michigan by +1.7 points. Again, it only did 1 poll in the state before the election, a poll that ended on November 6th.
Trafalgar missed NC by +1.3 points in a poll that ended November 1st.
They missed Florida by +2.8 points in a poll that ended November 6th.
They missed Georgia by +1.9 points in a poll that ended November 6th.
So while they correctly predicted the winner in these states, their polls generally came a few days before the election after polling was already moving heavily towards Trump. Furthermore, it was still an average of +1.6 points too strong for Trump, which is a larger error than national polling was that so many think was way off. So yeah, it's a lot less impressive than some have made it out to be.
Given that 2020 polling is weighting polls based on things that were missed in 2016, it's unlikely there will be similar errors and Trafalgar may end up being the pollster that is much more off this time.
Trafalgar says Trump has a 70 percent chance to win right now. They know the rust belt
A lot of the national polls show Trump did get a bounce
I think it's more from the riots than the convention
I agree, a very small bounce. I was quoting the Reuters headline verbatim -- I think what they meant is their own Reuters/Ipsos polling didn't show a bounce.
538 average of all polls shows Aug. 24, Trump 42.0%. Rising to 43.1% on Aug. 31, now down to 42.9%. So, maybe a 1 point bounce.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
