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I think some of the giant Dem vote by mail margins are due to some of the states that heavily utilizing vote by mail already having sizeable D tilts. The five that are almost entirely mail in are Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and Utah- that's a 31-6 spread in electoral votes. Of the no-excuse mail in states California is the most noticeable because it is literally 12% of the US population and voted Dem by a 2-1 margin in 2016.
I don't see the election night calls for particular states being more than a couple of points off but they could be inline with the 2016 Senate races in Arizona and Montana were they moved about 4 points when all ballots were counted. We should also know how many ballots are outstanding so the networks will know that night which comebacks are even possible.
I think this scenario depends entirely on mail-in votes not making it in time to be counted on election day, and I imagine most people will be sending them in as soon as they get them given the USPS controversies. Some states have an extension on counting ballots that arrive late, but others don't. So basically, it will all come down to both in-person voting turnout and how many of the mail-in ballots arrive by election day.
In North Carolina, ballot requests are 16x higher at this point than they were in 2016, and the VAST majority are for Democrats. There have been 618,000 requests, 326,000 for Democrats, 192,000 for Independents and just 92,000 for Republicans.
In Florida, there have been nearly 1 MILLION more mail-in ballot requests this election than in 2016, so far.
Wisconsin already has almost 100,000 more requests than the entire 2016 election cycle.
In Maine, 60% of mail-in requests have been by Democrats vs. 18% by Republicans.
What's more interesting is that a significant portion of these requests are new voters who did not vote in 2016. The majority of those new voters are registered Democrats.
So what's all this mean? Who knows. Some of the ballot request increases are obviously from voters who may have voted in-person in the past, but due to the pandemic, want to do it by mail. There are clearly a lot of new voters, though. We also don't yet know if turnout will be up or down this year overall. Some political pundits have suggested that overall votes could reach or surpass 150 million this year, which would be a large increase. So just because there are more ballot requests this year doesn't necessarily mean there will be lower in-person turnout. So it's hard to say if election day itself will appear to be a Trump win only to see Biden's totals increase thereafter, or if we'll know that night.
After Dr. Fauci said voting in person is as safe as going to the grocery store, I'm surprised the Democrat politicians are not "following the science" like they always claim they do, and tell their supporters to just get out there and vote.
I've seen lots of elderly people at the grocery stores, many look 80-90 years old. My mom still goes to the grocery store and she's 93.
The people who are very "sickly" can certainly vote by mail but the majority of people can just put on a mask, take hand sanitizer and go vote. It's not that hard people.
This might be possible, but I'm seeing more and more Democrats saying they're just going to bite the bullet and vote in-person. That's not going to be possible for everyone, obviously, and in-person voting is still going to be reduced, but by how much is the real question.
I tried to get a mail-in ballot in SC. I simply can't get one. This state only has "valid excuse" mail-in balloting. Nothing short of I'm a military serviceman serving overseas seems to be applicable.
I'm not going to lose much sleep over going to a polling place on Election Day. But, I think that since mail-in balloting was good enough for 30+ million Americans in 2016, I don't understand why it isn't good enough this time.
Oh, I know - because Trump said so. No facts. Just blind belief in whatever he says.
The Supreme Court will rule that mail in ballots that cannot be verified are not valid. Trump will win because real Americans will show up and vote in person or request an absentee ballot.
The Supreme Court will rule that mail in ballots that cannot be verified are not valid. Trump will win because real Americans will show up and vote in person or request an absentee ballot.
When have mail in ballots that cannot be verified ever been counted? The answer: Never. All ballots are verified when they are counted.
Nice strawman you just knocked down, Annadale Man. I hope you didn't hurt yourself in the process.
After Dr. Fauci said voting in person is as safe as going to the grocery store, I'm surprised the Democrat politicians are not "following the science" like they always claim they do, and tell their supporters to just get out there and vote.
I've seen lots of elderly people at the grocery stores, many look 80-90 years old. My mom still goes to the grocery store and she's 93.
The people who are very "sickly" can certainly vote by mail but the majority of people can just put on a mask, take hand sanitizer and go vote. It's not that hard people.
In some places the lack of polling places and social distancing requirements will cause people to have to wait outside for extended periods of time. That may not be a big deal for people down south or out west, but in the midwest and other parts of the country the weather might be down right nasty on election day. Even if the weather is fine, but there are long lines that may dissuade a person from voting. Our country as a whole loses when fewer people take part in our democracy.
After Dr. Fauci said voting in person is as safe as going to the grocery store, I'm surprised the Democrat politicians are not "following the science" like they always claim they do, and tell their supporters to just get out there and vote.
I've seen lots of elderly people at the grocery stores, many look 80-90 years old. My mom still goes to the grocery store and she's 93.
The people who are very "sickly" can certainly vote by mail but the majority of people can just put on a mask, take hand sanitizer and go vote. It's not that hard people.
Yep...
If people can go to the grocery store they can vote in person.
If Pelosi can go get her cut and dry at a closed hair salon while the owner is saying "WTF?" then people can sure as hell vote in person.
After Dr. Fauci said voting in person is as safe as going to the grocery store, I'm surprised the Democrat politicians are not "following the science" like they always claim they do, and tell their supporters to just get out there and vote.
I've seen lots of elderly people at the grocery stores, many look 80-90 years old. My mom still goes to the grocery store and she's 93.
The people who are very "sickly" can certainly vote by mail but the majority of people can just put on a mask, take hand sanitizer and go vote. It's not that hard people.
Good for your Mom; she's lucky. I have two neighbors (that I'm personally aware of) who physically cannot go to the polls. Both are 90 and extremely frail and never leave their homes. There is no reason they should not be able to cast their votes by mail; they're certainly entitled to by law.
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