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Subtract Colorado and New Mexico from your list. Both are solid blue.
Probably subtract Virginia. Hillary won it in 2016 and it has gone bluer ever-since. It wouldn't be impossible for Trump to win Virginia, but it is unlikely at the moment.
I had Georgia as a possible major upset (like PA,WI,and MI were in 2016), but for now I think it is safe. North Carolina and Florida are the bigger southern states of concern for Team Red. Just like the Upper Midwest states are a big concern for Team Blue.
It's only early September, but it seems many people are very confident about what will happen in the November election. So let's start putting some predictions down. If you want to add caveats or whatever, that's fine, but let's see your numbers.
Here is my prediction as of now. My caveat is that this is based on current information.
Here are the state EV breakdown as I see it now.
The Non-Swing Clinton States
DC
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
Colorado
New Mexico
Illinois
Virginia
Maryland
Delaware
New York
New Jersey
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maine
Total EV: 216
The Swing Clinton States
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
Total EV: 20
Total EV from 2016 Clinton states: 236
Swing States Biden will flip from Trump
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Total EV: 57
Total EV Clinton States + Flips: 293
Potential tossups that could go either way
Florida
North Carolina
Total EV: 44
Biden Total EV depending on these 2 Tossups: 293-337
Swing States Trump will keep
Iowa
Ohio
Georgia
Texas
Total EV: 78
The Non-Swing Trump States
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Kentucky
Indiana
West Virginia
South Carolina
Alaska
Total EV: 126
I wish we could see Norpoth's electoral map, I am truly interested in HOW he has Trump getting to 362..I mean I can't figure it out.
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