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While we're on the topic... if Joe shows his dementia in the debates for the world to see as seen here:
BIDEN: “COVID has taken this year, just since the outbreak, has taken more than 100 years... Look. Here's... The lives... It’s just... I mean, think about it. More lives this year than any other year, for the past hundred years."
You let it slide and still vote for him because you hate Trump that much. Correct? Anyone else? Can we get a CD poll on this? LOL
Open a thread and set one up.
My prediction is popular vote 51% for Trump, EV around 340.
My prediction is popular vote 51% for Trump, EV around 340.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa
Don't put too much stock in my guesses. I have a 79 IQ.
I put as much stock into yours as I put into mine...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zach911
My napkin math on my lunch break prediction is that Trump will win with a higher EV count than 2016. How much higher I'm not sure yet. Will wait till the debates. Will predict the popular vote then too... but my out of left field prediction right now is Biden doesn't get as many votes as Hillary.
304 last time... your 340 pick might not be that far off. I'm thinking a similar bump in EVs and PVs. Whether or not he wins the popular vote will probably come down to how many more cities the Democrats set ablaze between now and Nov 3rd.
Electoral College ends up tied with Trump and Biden at 269 EVs each.
When the electors go to vote, one of them realizes that neither party controls a majority of the states in the House based on the November elections (either 25-25 or with some split delegations and neither party controls at least 26) and decides to cast an electoral vote for a "compromise" candidate to give the House a third option (e.g. Kanye West or Jo Jorgensen). The House, unable to reach a consensus for either Trump or Biden, vote for that third candidate to become President.
Trump will win the EC and the popular vote will be close on election night but over the days and weeks after, votes for Biden will be found on loading docks, in mail trucks, in closets, in Bidens basement and stuffed under Pelosi's ice cream stock pile.
It is funny how the Dems couldn't find Hillary's 30,000 emails but watch them find as many votes as needed to sway a county/ state as needed.
Electoral College ends up tied with Trump and Biden at 269 EVs each.
When the electors go to vote, one of them realizes that neither party controls a majority of the states in the House based on the November elections (either 25-25 or with some split delegations and neither party controls at least 26) and decides to cast an electoral vote for a "compromise" candidate to give the House a third option (e.g. Kanye West or Jo Jorgensen). The House, unable to reach a consensus for either Trump or Biden, vote for that third candidate to become President.
Trump would win if it was a tie and went to the House. Didn't the Supreme Court rule that electors have to cast votes as per their states' rules? So, we won't be seeing 269-268-1 with a third party getting a vote.
Which means it is Trump and Biden only. There won't be a compromise candidate. The makeup of the House is going to make it really hard for Biden to win if it goes to the House. An Electoral College tie is a Trump win. The House today, even after a blue wave, is still controlled by state delegation, 25-24 (PA has an equal delegation for both parties). Most of that advantage comes from states with just 1 or 2 representatives (Alaska, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming).
If the House makeup after the election is anything like it is today, we might wind up seeing a President tie the Electoral College while having support from 3-4 million less voters than the other candidate and elected by a House that in the minority (232 seats to 203 seats). If it comes to that - it is a weird country that we live in.
Trump will add 2 states to his Electoral College total this November, from those he won in 2016:
New Hampshire: 4
Nevada: 6
Trump may also pick up these states, and they will be closer/competitive:
Minnesota: 10
Virginia: 13
New Mexico: 5
Trump is re-elected with 315 or so electoral votes, to Biden's 223 or so.
Biden may struggle to hit 220 though.
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