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Several recent state polls have now confirmed (along with RCP average) that Biden has settled into a favorable position in AZ and NC at this point in the race. To be sure, NC is very competitive, so lets amp up the voter turnout!
If Biden edges out Trump in NC and AZ, what is Trump’s realistic path forward?
I'd be shocked if Biden's team won North Carolina. Also would be very surprised if Arizona went to Biden's team.
The only reason Arizona is somewhat competitive is due to all of the Californians voting blue moving there.
I think an Arizona switch is likely and NC would be an upset. Western Republicans tend to be a different breed than those in the East. They are much more Libertarian so the social issues do not attract them. Trump once made some goofy comments about Mormons who are noticeable voting block in the mountain states. Trump also tussled with the two most recently elected R Senators- McCain and Flake. If you look at the recent R successes in the Southwest- Martinez in New Mexico, Ducey in Arizona- they ran more on competence than strict adherence to R social stances. And Trump and Martinez also had a famously poor relationship. Trump has not done well with Native Americans or the type of Hispanics prevalent to that area (meaning both Mexican immigrants and long term Hispanic families that go back generations) in comparison to Cubans and Central Americans in Florida. Trump underperformed in Utah in 2016. He is as poorly suited to the Southwest as Clinton was to the Rust Belt.
I'd be shocked if Biden's team won North Carolina. Also would be very surprised if Arizona went to Biden's team.
The only reason Arizona is somewhat competitive is due to all of the Californians voting blue moving there.
I think Trump's issues come from attacking the two senators from AZ. McCain and Flake. McCain was always quite popular here and Trump used him like a speed bump. Arizona was destined to turn blue but Trump sped that up an election or two.
Biden needs to get his butt to NC. Pronto. Even if just for a short speech and photo op with a few people. NC already started voting. GA and AZ and OH and IA and FL too. Just stop there for 30 minutes. Any number of these states can flip to blue.
My gosh, meet with some college students to discuss get-out-the-vote efforts in one state. Meet with teachers and parents in another state. First responders in a diff state. Some seniors in Florida worried about Covid. Maybe some people that had Covid and recovered. Visit a wind farm in Ohio. Crowds aren't needed for these quick visits.
Glad he met outdoors in MI with US made cars/trucks as a backdrop. Good move. Now onward to NC and AZ.....
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