PredictIt: 2020 Race - Biden 59 - Trump 43

[Zach911]

Originally Posted by katharsis

Of the popular vote:

Trump: 50%
Biden: 45%
Other: 5%

Before this week, I thought that it is WAY too close to call at this point, but now that I think that Biden's dementia is nowalmost indisputable and that it is more and more obvious that he is in no condition to undertake the duties and responsibilities of being POTUS, that voters who were/are on the fence will vote for Trump, even though they might have to hold their noses when doing so. And the debates, if they do occur, will convince even more people that Biden is simply no longer fit for the job.

I think that more people in the middle third of the scale will view Trump/Pence as safer than Biden/Harris, meaning that they won't trust Biden (or if it comes to that, Harris) to do as good of a job as Trump has. (Although, imo, Trump has not done a great job, I think he has done a better job than Biden or Harris would do as POTUS.)

I also think Trump will win the electoral college again, and by a slightly greater margin than in 2016.

Agreed. +1

I like the way you think... and there's nothing wrong with holding the nose. It's refreshing to see a post with some reality thrown in...

It really amazes me that the CD Trump haters STILL deny that Biden is showing signs of dementia. It's utterly mind boggling how they refuse to admit what is sooooo obvious... and I'd be saying that if I were a Democrat or an Independent too. The POTUS is the toughest job in the world... and to think that people want to vote for someone with mental issues shows a lot of ignorance. Never mind the fact he ran twice before and got nowhere... 3rd time the charm? A 50 year career politician is gonna bring about massive change?

The good news is these forums are a very small percentage of voters... and I'm 100% confident the american people will make the correct choice... just like in 2016.

#TRUMP2020

[Oklazona Bound]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

OP, Who is getting -2%?

59 plus 43 is 102.

Its a bet not polling. It does not add up to 100. Right now its 60-44

[dspguy]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

Most are withing the MOE. But Trump has to almost run the table and they are all showing Biden ahead. Agreed anything could happen.

Margin of error works both ways. In 2016, Trump had those errors in his favor in the states he needed it. Looking for a repeat of that is desperation. It is like being down two runs in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs and hitting a 3-un homerun to win the game. And then expecting the same result the next time your team is in that situation.

Was 2016 exciting? Sure. But to assume that errors will all be in Trump's favor and those errors be larger than 2016 is wishful thinking. He needs to tighten up the polls to have a good shot.