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I agree with 2 of the OP's 3 points. Trump will win Nevada & Minnesota, & a significant % of black & latino votes.
I'll call significant 12% of blacks, & 34% of the Latino vote. It would be significant because he only got 8% of blacks and 28% of latino's in 2016. The percent of increase is what will be signficant....50% & 21.4% respectively. Those are significant gains in large voting blocks.
If Trump achieves these gains, he will be re-elected, as over 1/2 of Americans believe his will.
Assuming your premise, there is a flaw you arent seeing.
In the few polls that do show Trump doing better in any of those groups, it shows a significant drop off in young voters.
In short, Trump isnt winning more people, the liberal young people in those groups are staying home and the percentages are changing because of that.
In fact, every poll is showing a drop off in young voters.
If Biden matches H.Clinton youth vote margins instead of being older, then the polls will actually be way off, and Biden could win in a larger fashion.
I do think that Nevada has a better chance of going to Trump this time around than it had last time around. All of those casino workers still unemployed are fed up with the Democrat lockdown, and calls for Senile Joe for a broader lockdown.
In 2016, Clinton was up in PA by 5-6 points, and in MI Clinton was up 8-9 points.
In 2016, who won PA, and MI?
Folks, take the polling with a serious grain of salt.
Clinton was up 1.9 points in PA and 3.4 points in Michigan.
Keep in mind that polls never caught the end of the Comey re-investigation into Clinton late in the election cycle.
Yes, Trump over-performed the last snapshot we had of the election before Election Day. It was pretty clear he was gaining due to the news cycle against Clinton. But Trump wasn't down 6 points in PA and 9 points in MI. He might be THIS time. But you can't turn a 3 from 2016 into an 8 in 2020 without cheating
Is it possible Trump wins NV and MN? Sure, anything is possible. But if the reasoning is "well, polls in WI were off by 6 points, therefore all polls are off by 6 points," then people are going to be letdown in November.
Clinton was up 1.9 points in PA and 3.4 points in Michigan.
Keep in mind that polls never caught the end of the Comey re-investigation into Clinton late in the election cycle.
Yes, Trump over-performed the last snapshot we had of the election before Election Day. It was pretty clear he was gaining due to the news cycle against Clinton. But Trump wasn't down 6 points in PA and 9 points in MI. He might be THIS time. But you can't turn a 3 from 2016 into an 8 in 2020 without cheating
Is it possible Trump wins NV and MN? Sure, anything is possible. But if the reasoning is "well, polls in WI were off by 6 points, therefore all polls are off by 6 points," then people are going to be letdown in November.
They always tighten the polls at the end because they know they were inflating them, it will happen again this year.
Winning NV, MI, and PA will be difficult for Trump, there is so much fraud potential there, especially in PA, and MI were Philly, and Detroit have long histories of fraud.
I've seen people say they think Trump can get the margin he needs to overcome fraud in PA, but it will be harder in MI to overcome it.
That makes MN a potentially important state, and that looks really good for Trump, as fraud is much less likely to be much of a factor there with it's high voter participation rates.
Assuming your premise, there is a flaw you arent seeing.
In the few polls that do show Trump doing better in any of those groups, it shows a significant drop off in young voters.
In short, Trump isnt winning more people, the liberal young people in those groups are staying home and the percentages are changing because of that.
In fact, every poll is showing a drop off in young voters.
If Biden matches H.Clinton youth vote margins instead of being older, then the polls will actually be way off, and Biden could win in a larger fashion.
Too many iffs. The polls will be way off, that is a given. I see no reason why we are not headed to a repeat of the Hillary Clinton polling train wreck. Nothing has changed, except riots that hurt Dems, and a Dem candidate who is even weaker than Hillary.
The outcome will be about which candidate can lead the economy back to where Trump had it pre-C-19,and that is Trump. Biden's 48 years is riddled with economic wrong turns.
Biden unleased China on the World. Trump is putting the genie back into the bottle.
Now Minnesota is blue. They haven't gone for a Republican since Nixon 72 and Ike before that.
Well, I tend to not agree with you much, but here you are right.
I can kind of maybe understand questioning Nevada. I don’t get where people are getting the idea that MN will flip, though. There’s nothing to indicate that it will.
Well, I tend to not agree with you much, but here you are right.
I can kind of maybe understand questioning Nevada. I don’t get where people are getting the idea that MN will flip, though. There’s nothing to indicate that it will.
Actually, as things stands now, MN is looking like it will flip to Trump.
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