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Where we stand right now Trump is in a weaker position. If we look at 'solid' states where each candidate is ahead by at least 5.5 points, Biden has 272 EV's vs. Trump's 125 EV's. Biden has Minn,Wisc, and Mich almost put away with leads in the 6 to 9 point range. That really hurts Trump because that's where he won last time.
What Trump needs to do -- quickly, as time is running short -- is to build a national surge in support. He needs a good bump of 4 or 5 points across the board in the national polls. That will lift his numbers in all of the battlegrounds, which will put states like PA, AZ, WI etc. back in play for him.
Actually Trump is only trailing by 3.5 in the Battleground States, and that includes Wisconsin that Biden leads by 6.3, and Hillary led Wisconsin by 6.5 on November 7th 2016 and LOST....
So the National Polls can give Biden a lead of 7.1, and Trump may win if an election was held TODAY.....because Biden leading by 3.5 in Battleground States means they are all up for grabs.
Well, have you seen the recent polls showing Hispanics breaking for Trump?
That doesn't matter either, does it?
These the same polls that don't matter? Just curious.
There could be a poll out there that shows Trump winning more Florida Hispanics than he did in 2016, but shows him down 5 points in the state and you'd quote the first half and deny the second half.
Yep and last week it "looked like Biden would take Florida" too right?
You do realize those states have very different electorates than Florida. The ace in the hole for Florida Rs is Cuban and Central American Hispanics. They can carry an R to victory in the state but do not exist in noticeable numbers else where. If you look at Pa, Mi, Az, NC, and Mn you will see one or two large metros that can dominate the state. Biden and Dems in general have a huge opportunity to win those states based simply on the urban areas and their Dem trending suburbs. With Biden proving more popular among seniors than expected he also gets a slight pop the Rustbelt. This is born out by the states I listed having multiple Dems holding statewide office- Florida has exactly one such Dem and she fills a lesser post.
New poll out from Monmouth has Biden up 3 to 5 points in Florida with this nugget of information:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monmouth
The Democrat has a large advantage among voters of color (70% to 22%) although the lead is
smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). According to the 2016 exit poll conducted by
Edison Research for the national networks, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62%
to 35%).
Biden is one point short of Clinton at this moment. There's also 10% undecided in that demographic now vs only 3% undecided in 2016). However, they are also showing that Trump's lead among older voters in Florida is down to 49 to 47 in favor of Trump.
But yeah, I know - "polls are fake" unless they show Trump up by 15 and 100% of Latino support.
I think Trump will get a boost from young voters in FL. The people I talk to in to FL can't believe the restrictions that much of the Northeast was under over the summer. If you are young and hate restrictions, you should vote for Trump. Biden/Harris are all about maximum socialized misery for risk-based outcomes.
Restrictions were needed since Trump punted on any national level frontline mitigation when he lied to America about the severity of coronavirus while actively undermining efforts to contain it.
Right now it looks like Trump will take FL, but Biden will take MN,WI, MI,AZ and probably PA.
I will give you AZ for sure unless something really strange happens; this is a total shocker to many of us including all our friends and relatives living in AZ. the other 3 you mention could still go either way, regardless of the polls
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