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Biden needs to be up nationally by 9% to 10%+ to win Iowa. MN & WI never stood a chance of flipping this year
I agree with the part about Iowa. At 6% states like Iowa, they "come into play" and at 10% they might just flip. Remember national polls are pretty accurate with the popular vote. And the popular vote is the aggregate of state votes. For every 1% you gain nationally, that's worth about 1.3 to 1.4 million more votes nationally. Those votes have to come from somewhere. At 10%, I'd expect Iowa to probably be a toss-up. Same with Georgia and Texas.
However, I don't think Biden is going to get to 10%. I don't think Iowa will go to Biden either.
MN and WI? I don't see any reason why Biden won't win those right now. If aggregate polls tighten up to within the margin of error, that's a different story.
If you look at Iowa general elections going back to the mid-80's, Democrats have taken the state every year except 2004 (very slight razor thin margin for Bush) and 2016 (Trump beat Clinton 51.2% to 41.7%, which was the largest margin in many decades). 2016 was a very unusual year. Trump was able to get a lot of blue collar counties, including heavy labor union counties with a large manufacturing base, to swing his way.
I don't see that massive swing again in 2020. The flow of jobs to the South and Mexico has continued; MAGA did nothing to stop it. Several large manufacturing facilities shut their doors or trimmed jobs over the last few years. Trump's tariffs have been hurting Deere & Co, which is a huge employer in Eastern Iowa. The tariffs are also hurting agricultural jobs and farms. The reality is that rural Iowa is no better off under Trump than it was under Obama, and in a lot of ways it is worse.
Biden needs to be up nationally by 9% to 10%+ to win Iowa. MN & WI never stood a chance of flipping this year
I'm not sure about that. Obama won Iowa with a 7.2 point national lead in 2008 and again in 2012 with just a 4 point national lead.
That said, the polling in Iowa hasn't been particularly good for Biden, so his chances of winning it are one of the lowest in regards to the swing states. A couple caveats to that would be that Iowa has not been heavily polled at all- only 1 time since August 6th- so it's hard to make any real definitive statements about how close the race is. The second is that Trump's current lead is less than 1/5th what he won it by in 2016.
If you look at Iowa general elections going back to the mid-80's, Democrats have taken the state every year except 2004 (very slight razor thin margin for Bush) and 2016 (Trump beat Clinton 51.2% to 41.7%, which was the largest margin in many decades). 2016 was a very unusual year. Trump was able to get a lot of blue collar counties, including heavy labor union counties with a large manufacturing base, to swing his way.
I don't see that massive swing again in 2020. The flow of jobs to the South and Mexico has continued; MAGA did nothing to stop it. Several large manufacturing facilities shut their doors or trimmed jobs over the last few years. Trump's tariffs have been hurting Deere & Co, which is a huge employer in Eastern Iowa. The tariffs are also hurting agricultural jobs and farms. The reality is that rural Iowa is no better off under Trump than it was under Obama, and in a lot of ways it is worse.
Iowa is turning red instead of purple. Same for Missouri and Ohio.
Democrats think states all change in one direction. Fact is, the recent map is almost a flip from 1976. Half the states have changed. Basically its just the northeast and great plains that have stayed the same. The midwest shifted away from the Republicans and now is starting to shift back. The west coast shifted to the left and has stayed there. The south shifted to the right.
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