Latest Rasmussen poll has Trump beating Biden (voting, Congress, interview)
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It's one poll, Rasmussen is more like a clock that is right twice a day. I remember how much Romney voters clung to his polling in 2012 and he blew it in 2018. Stick with the aggregates.
I read the synopsis and call BS. They have Trump and Biden at an identical 80% of support from their respective parties. Every other poll I have seen has Biden above that and Trump into the 90s. There method of weighting also looks goofy. The other biggie was that it was an automated phone poll supplemented with online interviews...
We'll see how correct it is in six weeks and a couple of days. I will admit that I am interested in seeing their results would correlate to individual states.
Rasmussen had the 2018 House +2% R when it ended up +9.4% D
So, if it has Trump up 1% then that means its Biden +10%
How dare you bring up any other election year or polling results but those of 2016! Have you no respect towards the fragile mental state of Trump supporters desperately clinging to whatever outliers and past results they can find?
But in all seriousness, in September 2016, Rasmussen polls had Trump up nationally by as much as 5 points, and still had polls with Trump up 2 nationally in October. They were all over the place that fall. Plenty of other pollsters were consistently much closer to the eventual national result. Rasmussen didn't seem to poll actual swing states in 2016.
Rasmussen was also way off in the national in 2012, having Romney up 1 when Obama would win it by almost 4. It was one of the few pollsters that often had Romney up throughout that fall.
Rasmussen did do some swing state polls in 2012. It had Ohio at a tie when Obama won it by 3, Wisconsin a tie when Obama won it by almost 7, Michigan at Obama +5 when Obama won it by 9.5, etc. It was consistently several points too low for Obama in swing states.
Overall, the record is pretty clear. Rasmussen is almost always too far to the Right, even in elections when the Republican ultimately prevails.
Trafalgar has a C- pollster grade, and even that's probably generous. Rasmussen is a C+. Emerson has a far better reputation, but it's not been putting out very many polls this election for some reason. It hasn't had a national poll since August, and only one state poll- New Jersey of all places- this month.
Trafalgar has a C- pollster grade, and even that's probably generous. Rasmussen is a C+. Emerson has a far better reputation, but it's not been putting out very many polls this election for some reason. It hasn't had a national poll since August, and only one state poll- New Jersey of all places- this month.
Tells me you use a garbage grader. Emerson in 2016 was a joke. They were regularly an outlier far to the left. When they show Trump much closer than the CNN/Fox/ABC/NBC group it suggests the rest are garbage and Trump is doing really well since I know they skew left.
Big news- Rasmusen also has Biden up in Ohio. Looks like he may yet pull off the Trump feat from 2016- lose the popular vote, but eek out the Rustbelt states for an Electoral College win.
+/- 2% margin of error, which means its a high-confidence poll.
This is the most genuine poll I've seen in this cycle.
This far in advance, it still means almost nothing; unfortunately.
Let's see what a poll like this says on Nov 1st, do it state-by-state, and then add up the delegates, and then you might have a real poll.
Teaching point: the margin of error is related to the size of the sample. Bigger sample, smaller MOE. It means nothing more than that. The question always is whether the sample properly reflects the population they are trying to measure. In other words, is Rasmussen's model on likely voters really the likely voters or is it flawed.
Rasmussen had the 2018 House +2% R when it ended up +9.4% D
So, if it has Trump up 1% then that means its Biden +10%
That was a pretty bad miss.
These days Rasmussen releases poll results daily. It is not very likely that Rasmussen would be off by 10% day after day after day...
Teaching point: the margin of error is related to the size of the sample. Bigger sample, smaller MOE. It means nothing more than that. The question always is whether the sample properly reflects the population they are trying to measure. In other words, is Rasmussen's model on likely voters really the likely voters or is it flawed.
95% of the polls disucssed here on C-D's poltical forum are "low-confidence" polls that have m.o.e's of >2%.
Those are garbage, yet Hundreds post endlessly debating the garbage.
Finally, one with a low m.o.e comes along, one that is worth dicussing, and its gotten less attention than it should have.
To get 2,500 respondents, Rasmussen probably dialed 25,000 times! That takes lot of time, and money, even though much of it is automated. When the robot gets a voice, somebody still must start interacting.
This is the #1 poll I've seen thus far on the 2020 presidential election.
Big news- Rasmusen also has Biden up in Ohio. Looks like he may yet pull off the Trump feat from 2016- lose the popular vote, but eek out the Rustbelt states for an Electoral College win.
LOL Biden isn’t losing the popular vote.
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