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Record first-day turnout in parts of Texas yesterday.
“Voters in Harris County shattered records for turnout Tuesday on the first day of early voting.
According to a tweet from Harris County Clerk’s Office, 115,000 people had voted in the county before 6 p.m. By the times the polls closed for the night, more than 128,000 people had voted across the county.”
1st day of early voting for Miami Dade County today, Oct 19th
Done with the 3 Ballots for us...Right around 7AM in a horrible Downpour I arrived at the Hammocks Center, I parked by the Tag office to walk under cover all the way to the library and there I had to wait for 2 other people in front of me turning their Ballots.
My ID was necessary proof for my vote, but since the other 2 ballots had the same return address, all went smooth.
Saw the line for the regular voters, rain and all it extended that early and under the rain all the way to The Ice Palace.
By the time I left , no more that 10 minutes The line for the people like me dropping their envelopes had increased easily to about a dozen voters.
Wow !!! XPRESS Service, just 2 days, as of this early AM and On Line verified with the Board of Elections Miami Dade, Our 3 Votes received, processed and COUNTED !
Record first-day turnout in parts of Texas yesterday.
“Voters in Harris County shattered records for turnout Tuesday on the first day of early voting.
According to a tweet from Harris County Clerk’s Office, 115,000 people had voted in the county before 6 p.m. By the times the polls closed for the night, more than 128,000 people had voted across the county.”
We can't declare what Independents will be. It is probably safe to say that party defectors (Republicans voting Democrat and vice versa) are a wash. So, in 2016, the two party vote was 54.8% Democratic to 45.2% Republican before Election Day. That's an 8.6% margin for Democrats with early/mail-in votes. Trump won with a 2.1% deficit nationally. So, he gained 6.5% of the Election Day plus Independent early/mail-in vote vs. Clinton.
Again, let's not assume anything from Independents as of yet. And like above, we will assume Republicans are voting Trump, Democrats voting Biden and any party defectors are a wash.
Right now, the 2020 Two party vote is 66.6% Democrat to 33.4% Republican; that's a 33.2% margin as opposed to 8.6%.
Really, there's no safe conclusion. Nothing is normal about an election in a pandemic year.
I wonder what percentage of Democrat voting will be done on election day.... Obviously a very small number.
Oh please. No one has any idea what the in-person voting is going to look like yet. I provided what we DO know so far. Another thing we do know is that Trump did receive more votes on Election Day than Clinton did.
We also know there was a roughly 8.6% advantage for Clinton in early voting. If I had to extrapolate on that, I'd say that if Biden's margin in early voting come Election Day is below 8.6%, I'd be concerned. If he is above 8.6% by then, I'm less concerned.
We simply don't know how much of the electorate from a two-party standpoint is going to vote early/mail-in vs in-person. The closest we have is a poll by Pew Research that was published in early October. One can surmise the poll was taken over late September through early October.
According to that, 73% of Biden voters claim they are voting early in-person by mail. 45% of Trump voters make the same claim. Now, not all states report Dem/Rep/Ind early votes. Some just report that X ballots have been requested and Y ballots returned. The numbers I posted earlier were from states that do provide that by-party count.
As of yesterday, Biden held a 33.3% advantage in early voting. That poll is claiming Biden holds a 28% edge in early/mail-in vs in-person. Now, we don't know if Americans changed their mind after taking that poll. The same way we don't know if a Trump or Biden voter has changed their mind since taking a poll either. Judging from the information we do have, Biden would be "ahead of the curve" for the time being; his early vote margin is greater than the estimated early vote turn-out vs Trump.
I'm not hanging my hat on that. We don't have enough data to make a prediction with confidence. America is still used to in-person voting. I think some percentage of those 73% Biden and 45% Trump voters might show up in-person anyway since most of America voted in-person in 2016. I think that will continue again.
Oh please. No one has any idea what the in-person voting is going to look like yet. I provided what we DO know so far. Another thing we do know is that Trump did receive more votes on Election Day than Clinton did.
We also know there was a roughly 8.6% advantage for Clinton in early voting. If I had to extrapolate on that, I'd say that if Biden's margin in early voting come Election Day is below 8.6%, I'd be concerned. If he is above 8.6% by then, I'm less concerned.
We simply don't know how much of the electorate from a two-party standpoint is going to vote early/mail-in vs in-person. The closest we have is a poll by Pew Research that was published in early October. One can surmise the poll was taken over late September through early October.
According to that, 73% of Biden voters claim they are voting early in-person by mail. 45% of Trump voters make the same claim. Now, not all states report Dem/Rep/Ind early votes. Some just report that X ballots have been requested and Y ballots returned. The numbers I posted earlier were from states that do provide that by-party count.
As of yesterday, Biden held a 33.3% advantage in early voting. That poll is claiming Biden holds a 28% edge in early/mail-in vs in-person. Now, we don't know if Americans changed their mind after taking that poll. The same way we don't know if a Trump or Biden voter has changed their mind since taking a poll either. Judging from the information we do have, Biden would be "ahead of the curve" for the time being; his early vote margin is greater than the estimated early vote turn-out vs Trump.
I'm not hanging my hat on that. We don't have enough data to make a prediction with confidence. America is still used to in-person voting. I think some percentage of those 73% Biden and 45% Trump voters might show up in-person anyway since most of America voted in-person in 2016. I think that will continue again.
Fascinating article. Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%). By contrast, 51% of Biden supporters say they plan to vote by mail or absentee (or have already voted this way). A quarter of Trump supporters (25%) say they plan to vote by mail or absentee.
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