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Polls? None of that matters when you have a master con man at work trying to manipulate the electoral college again.
Imagine 8 of the 9 swing states with Republican controlled legislators. Imagine those legislators appoint Trump friendly electors in the electoral college. Ever hear of a faithless voter?
George Bush won the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Donald Trump won the election without the popular vote. His only chance for reelection is to corrupt the electoral college, and he is working to do so.
This whole fake voter fraud and vote by mail in ballot is just setting the table to go to court to get votes rejected. If you sew enough chaos and doubt into the legitimacy of an election, and you're successful in suppressing enough votes, neither candidate gets to the 270 electoral votes needed to win an election. Legislators send hand picked electors to Congress to vote for the president. Trump has an electoral advantage over Biden in Congress because of the Republican held legislators in the swing states. Your vote means nothing with an engineered election. That means polls mean nothing, nor does millions in a popular vote. Trump could very well steal another election. He's in a far better place to do it this time.
Would anyone place a bet on this? Nobody believes this.
+9 is probably generous, but there is plenty of evidence to support Biden doing better there than Clinton. And he really only has to do about 1 point better than Clinton considering Clinton only lost it by 0.7.
Would anyone place a bet on this? Nobody believes this.
Seems you are confusing a poll 5 weeks out versus the actual election results.
The poll 5 weeks out still has a lot of undecided voters. Polls get closer as undecideds pick a candidate. Some people switch candidates after being polled. The poll is only good for the time period it was taken. Then you have the margin of error for the poll.
+9 is probably generous, but there is plenty of evidence to support Biden doing better there than Clinton. And he really only has to do about 1 point better than Clinton considering Clinton only lost it by 0.7.
But the fact that is says NINE POINTS doesn't raise any alarms for you?
Surely, even you would admit that there is no way in the world Biden will win PA by 9 points.
That doesn't cause you to question the methodology at all?
But the fact that is says NINE POINTS doesn't raise any alarms for you?
Surely, even you would admit that there is no way in the world Biden will win PA by 9 points.
That doesn't cause you to question the methodology at all?
HAHA
I mean, why would it alarm me? I just said I don't think it's that high, but I never take any single poll as gospel, anyway. The aggregates tend to be much better in the long run than any individual poll. I know you guys like to make a huge deal out of the polls getting it wrong in 2016, but in Pennsylvania, the RCP average was only Clinton +1.9. The 0.7 for Trump was within the margin of error, not the massive swing to the right you all seem to think it was. The margins of error exist for a reason, and for most polls is about 2-4 points. The current PA average, if we applied those margins of error, would put Biden anywhere from +9.7 to +1.7. Remember that a margin of error means that the polling average can also be too low for Biden, not just too high. You are assuming a margin of error at least 2x that of 2016- all in Trump's favor- to say Trump will win PA. If anything, that should be alarming to you given how unlikely that is.
You also fail to remember that pollsters don't want to be as far off as they were perceived to be in 2016. They need to maintain a reputable name for themselves as pollsters, so they want to be as accurate as possible. Given what happened in 2016, the logical thinking would be that they are overcompensating somewhat to the right instead of the left, assuming that there is more Trump support than what they're supposedly finding. That could very well be true, but even if it is, pollsters are attempting to compensate for it this election. This means that there's unlikely to be as much of a significant swing right- if there is a swing to the right- come election day versus the polling averages. It's already being baked into the polls. This also suggests that if the polls are wrong, they're going to be wrong in Biden's favor.
Seems you are confusing a poll 5 weeks out versus the actual election results.
The poll 5 weeks out still has a lot of undecided voters. Polls get closer as undecideds pick a candidate. Some people switch candidates after being polled. The poll is only good for the time period it was taken. Then you have the margin of error for the poll.
No. I don’t care about previous polls. Biden doesn’t have anywhere near a 9 point lead in Penn. That’s my point. Another BS poll. I believe Trump takes Penn. again by a larger margin than he did over Clinton.
+9 is probably generous, but there is plenty of evidence to support Biden doing better there than Clinton. And he really only has to do about 1 point better than Clinton considering Clinton only lost it by 0.7.
There’s no way Trump loses Penn. I would wager $500 on that.
Polls? None of that matters when you have a master con man at work trying to manipulate the electoral college again.
Imagine 8 of the 9 swing states with Republican controlled legislators. Imagine those legislators appoint Trump friendly electors in the electoral college. Ever hear of a faithless voter?
George Bush won the electoral college without winning the popular vote. Donald Trump won the election without the popular vote. His only chance for reelection is to corrupt the electoral college, and he is working to do so.
This whole fake voter fraud and vote by mail in ballot is just setting the table to go to court to get votes rejected. If you sew enough chaos and doubt into the legitimacy of an election, and you're successful in suppressing enough votes, neither candidate gets to the 270 electoral votes needed to win an election. Legislators send hand picked electors to Congress to vote for the president. Trump has an electoral advantage over Biden in Congress because of the Republican held legislators in the swing states. Your vote means nothing with an engineered election. That means polls mean nothing, nor does millions in a popular vote. Trump could very well steal another election. He's in a far better place to do it this time.
Translation:
I'm salty the electoral college is great at preventing the largest states from determining the President.
BREAKING NEWS:
Trump won 49 states by 1,000,000 popular votes... a 304-172 landslide in the EC... and Hillary won California.
But a New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll released Thursday indicates that Pennsylvania remains out of reach for Mr. Trump.
Hillary Clinton leads him by seven percentage points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in a four-way race.
Mr. Trump has the support of just 76 percent of Republican voters and trails among white voters with a college degree by nine points, 47 percent to 38 percent. He has nearly no support among black and other nonwhite voters.
Over all, Mrs. Clinton has a nine-point lead among registered voters, even larger than her seven-point edge among likely voters
Look at your numbers- Clinton actually hit 47% election night but Trump won by less than a point after his voters decided they didn't care about *****gate and a lot of voters did care about the late Comey investigation. At this point Biden has nothing explosive hanging over his head and a one point bounce puts him to 50%. That leaves little room for Trump to reel it in. His best hope at this point is for Dems to have massive numbers of absentee ballots incorrectly returned/tossed and for him to see another late surge. If more voters in general show up that will help Biden's cause since Clintons lass margin could literally be found in the undervote by AAs in Philly alone.
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