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Also isn’t Georgia mostly Metro Atlanta? Like 61 or 62%?
No. The closest we will see Georgia was when Obama ran and when Abrams ran, that brought out the black voters, they won't come out to support a racist like Biden like they did with Biden. Atlanta is an anomaly in Georgia. Sane Georgia voters won't vote like Atlanta or even its suburbs will.
Yeah, GA and TX going blue is a bit of stretch this cycle. AZ could definitely go for Biden though, and maybe even Iowa even though it shows in Trump's column right now.
That's where I disagree. If there is a cycle when it could happen, this might be the one. It depends which kool-aid you drink (not you specifically). It is no secret that TX is drifting to the left. GA too. Recent elections in those states (2016 and 2018) both point in that direction. If one thinks Trump will overperform an average Republican Presidential candidate, then they are less inclined to think it will happen this election cycle. If one thinks Trump will underperform an average Republican Presidential candidate, that's when we might start to truly consider a blue TX and GA.
What it boils down to is:
Romney won TX by 16 points in 2012. Trump won by only 9 points in 2016. Is that 7 point disparity simply a function of the state moving left demographically in just four years? Or Trump being a poor candidate?
Romney and McCain won GA by 8 points in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Trump won by only 5 points in 2016. Is that 3 point disparity a function of the state moving left demographically in just four years? Or Trump being a poor candidate?
The thing is, Rebublicans barely hung on to win statewide elections there in 2018. If that's because those states have continued to move left AND Trump underperformed, then they might flip. However, if Trump being a poor candidate is weighing him down, I'd think GA and TX would go red again in 2024.
With huge turnout of the African-American vote in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas as well as a swing of 1 or 2% points among moderates, all three of those states will be in the D column. Trump further alienated moderates with his bully and frankly incorehent behavior and message last night, so we're heading in the right direction.
He needs to quickly change his tone and attempt to pull moderates in.
To understand what is happening in Georgia, there are two congressional districts you really want to look at. They are Georgia's 6th & 7th districts, Lucy Mcbath won Georgia's 6th district last cycle & the long term sitting house member retired in Ga. 7th setting up an open election. Both districts are almost 50/50 splits right now, 10 years ago when the maps were drawn both were 60/40 republican. This best explains what has happened to Georgia, the state is turning very purple.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the state go Blue in this election & it wouldn't surprise me to see it go Red. It's that close folks.
That's where I disagree. If there is a cycle when it could happen, this might be the one. It depends which kool-aid you drink (not you specifically). It is no secret that TX is drifting to the left. GA too. Recent elections in those states (2016 and 2018) both point in that direction. If one thinks Trump will overperform an average Republican Presidential candidate, then they are less inclined to think it will happen this election cycle. If one thinks Trump will underperform an average Republican Presidential candidate, that's when we might start to truly consider a blue TX and GA.
What it boils down to is:
Romney won TX by 16 points in 2012. Trump won by only 9 points in 2016. Is that 7 point disparity simply a function of the state moving left demographically in just four years? Or Trump being a poor candidate?
Romney and McCain won GA by 8 points in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Trump won by only 5 points in 2016. Is that 3 point disparity a function of the state moving left demographically in just four years? Or Trump being a poor candidate?
The thing is, Rebublicans barely hung on to win statewide elections there in 2018. If that's because those states have continued to move left AND Trump underperformed, then they might flip. However, if Trump being a poor candidate is weighing him down, I'd think GA and TX would go red again in 2024.
As of this writing, Texas has been moved into toss-up status. Having compared to this timeframe in 2016, Trump has lost a *lot* of ground in Texas, this close to the election. I'd be curious to know if last night's debate has anything to do with that.
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