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The debate hurt Biden. Trump won the undecideds in CNN's focus group
The first presidential debate left undecided American voters in agreement about at least one thing: President Trump's negativity.
Republican consultant and pollster Frank Luntz asked his focus group to use one word to describe the president and basically "every single word was negative," observed Politico's Tim Alberta. One respondent from Wisconsin called Trump obnoxious and un-presidential, while a Pennsylvania voter said he behaved like a "crackhead." Others described the president as being "un-American" and "arrogant."
The first presidential debate left undecided American voters in agreement about at least one thing: President Trump's negativity.
Republican consultant and pollster Frank Luntz asked his focus group to use one word to describe the president and basically "every single word was negative," observed Politico's Tim Alberta. One respondent from Wisconsin called Trump obnoxious and un-presidential, while a Pennsylvania voter said he behaved like a "crackhead." Others described the president as being "un-American" and "arrogant."
Before the debate. Before this dementia nonsense was put to rest. I don't see how that debate would have helped Trump's cause.
The guy even admitted he shut down the economy.
And that was the least of his gaffes. Trump's performances may have galvanized his base, but his base is well in hand. Trump likely needed a more measured debate to pull in unsure Biden voters and undecideds.
The big picture is that Rasmussen just went from Trump +1 to Biden +8. They were one of the only polls that showed Trump was within striking distance. I fully expect them to move more right in their future polls. But, over the past few months, the average of Rasmussen polls still has Biden +4.
Monmouth is not exclusively left-leaning. In 2012, it was almost 4 points too far to the right overall in its polling that year. Its final 3 polls averaged Romney +1.3. Obama won by 3.9, a +5.4 ending average too far right. It ended up being the 2nd furthest right pollster in 2012, behind only the Washington Times.
In 2016, it seems to have overcompensated the opposite way, and ended up being about 5 points too far to the left and ended up being one of the worst.
So maybe it's not that Monmouth is too far right or left, but that its national polling has not been that great historically. So I would not count on it to save Trump.
Monmouth never seems to be all that accurate regardless of what side and yes, they do lean left.
Rasmussen is not as right leaning as you may think or as right as it was many years ago
In the 3 elections 2008, 2012 and 2016, Rasmussen's polling average bias was between the 2nd or 3rd most Right of all pollsters. It was 5.5 points too far right in 2008, 3.5 in 2012 and was one of only 5 pollsters in more than 40 that had a right bias in 2016.
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